PP 30/60 should I lay this down?

JeffO · #1 06-10-2005, 01:32 AM

MP1 appears solid 18/12/2.1 Button is 43/14/1.5

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Button bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Button calls.

I'm not interested in building a bigger pot at this point, I want to knock as many out as possible. MP1 3 betting preflop and checking thru the flop, and then calling 2 cold looked a little suspicious.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Button calls, Hero calls.

Now MP1 comes alive and raises when the 3rd [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits the board, and the button calls two cold, WTF, I'm not sure if I want the board to pair or not.

River: (16.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Button raises, Now the button comes alive again. It's going to cost me $120 more and it's a $1200 pot, but at this point I might be in 3rd place. Can I fold this pot?

Final Pot: 20.75 BB

MichaelOar · #2 06-10-2005, 02:11 AM

I suspect that the button has AA can't bear the thought of not raising the river with it. The other guy is going to probably show you something like KQh or possibly AQh. No way I call on the end . . . but maybe that's why I only play 10/20.

Michael

smurph · #3 06-10-2005, 02:14 AM

Button looks like AK or A9. I have no idea what MP1 has so I would call 2 on the river and fold for 2 more.

DpR · #4 06-10-2005, 02:43 AM

While I think we can come up with some theoretical scenarios where you are ahead you certainly are not winning here mich more than 9%. This one is really read dependent - meaning you have read one of these guys to make odd plays before. Button clearly looks like he has a flush. If he is decent playing post flop you can be pretty sure of it. What can button have here? Ah9x could play it that way if he is laggy post flop (i.e. most arent raising that river with 2 pair), but calling 3 preflop? I think his VPIP would have to be 70+ or so for that. Maybe 44 if he is calling 3 preflop with that. So those are the only two hands you can beat from the button. I think the nut flush is pretty likely holding here. Now on to MP. His CC then turn raise certainly wreaks of strength. KK? AK hearts? I dont think there is any way he checks that on the flop. AA has to bet that flop with the two hearts. AhKx would make the turn raise look right, but again cant check that flop. Almost certainly has to be KK no? His stats are pretty close to typical 2+2 perhpas minus a little aggression. I wouldnt play any hand the way he did, but KK is the big favorite, could be AhQh as well I suppose.

Regardless, after all that babble, someone must have played their hand pretty wierd for you to be ahead of either of them - gotta believe its a super long shot you are ahead of both.

I think it is not unreasonable to fold this - chance of winning has to be around 2-3%

stoxtrader · #5 06-10-2005, 07:15 AM

two things.

1 - I think a river fold is fine here, especially against a reasonable player

2 - the flop checkraise is ok, but your thought process of knocking peope out...

I woulc d just call here, and its not because i *don't* want to knock people out, but its because I think I will only fold hands that I want to come along....bascially, which actino builds a bigger pot?

ggbman · #6 06-10-2005, 08:10 AM

I think a fold is ok here, and if you did and you folded the winner, dont worry the play is fine.

steveyz · #7 06-10-2005, 12:37 PM

I would think that you would want to knock out gut-shots (QJ/QT/JT) who would be getting the right price to draw facing one bet, but would face a tough decision facing 2 bets. The flop check-raise if fine, although I might go for a lead-3-bet or lead turn-c/r depending on flop action.

JasonP530 · #8 06-10-2005, 12:54 PM

I would think MP1 had KK with a high degree of certainty. You really think he 3 bets preflop with something like AhKh, AhQh and checks the flop? The button looks like AK with the ace of hearts from the action, and got frisky when he made two pair. Assuming I am right, it is still a tough fold because I would have to be right 90% of the time, plus the action is not completed behind. I would think the his hand range of AA, KK, Ahkh, AhQh, Ah,Jh, 44, AK is HEAVILY weighted towards KK. Its hard when you lose to just a few hands in the range, but it is the most likely.

SoBeDude · #9 06-10-2005, 02:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
two things.

1 - I think a river fold is fine here, especially against a reasonable player

2 - the flop checkraise is ok, but your thought process of knocking peope out...

I woulc d just call here, and its not because i *don't* want to knock people out, but its because I think I will only fold hands that I want to come along....bascially, which actino builds a bigger pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking the same thing. anyone with a flush draw is getting like 8-1 calling 2 cold, so they're not going anywhere and they're not making a mistake to call. (Hell this is party, they're not folding the flush draw no matter the odds anyway.)

the only hands you're going to knock out are the ones you want calling, ones with a pair that think they have 6 outs to two pair or trips.

But Stox, u really think check-calling is the play on the flop!? I like betting out, watching everyone call, then 3 betting when LP raises.

-Scott

JeffO · #10 06-10-2005, 02:41 PM

I struggled with this one but, I folded my set when it was 2 bets back to me on the river.

MP1 showed A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He 3 bet pre flop, checked and called two cold on the flop, and raised my turn lead with nothing more than a heart draw.

Button showed 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He bet the flop, called two cold on the turn when the flush card hit and raised the river.

My hand would have been good. I needed to take a break after this one. I put MP1 on KK and the button on a flush, but I was willing to call down this big pot until it was two bets to me on the river.