Thoughts on this line?

JeffO · #1 06-03-2005, 09:42 AM

Villain in this hand is 25/7/1.1

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
7 folds, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero folds.

Here was my thinking when I decided to lead the turn. I thought there was a good chance I was ahead now. The second ace made it less likely that the villain had an ace and I didn't want to give a KQ, KJ or QJ a free card. If I'm behind to KK, QQ or JJ then he probably goes into a calldown mode and I lose no more than going check/call on all 3 streets.. And if he raises me it's an easy fold. Thoughts?

piggity · #2 06-03-2005, 12:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And if he raises me it's an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is such an easy fold. I don't play the party 30/60 per se, but from what I've read a raise-bluff here with a small PP can be common.

JeffO · #3 06-03-2005, 12:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And if he raises me it's an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is such an easy fold. I don't play the party 30/60 per se, but from what I've read a raise-bluff here with a small PP can be common.

[/ QUOTE ]

much more common on the flop than turn IMO

stoxtrader · #4 06-03-2005, 02:37 PM

I don't like the turn lead. Once he raise, you are likely beat, but a fold is a disaster vs QT or JT (think he won't 3 bet those pre-flop? it is a steal/defense situation after all).

besides, a lead simply aloows a worse hand to fold and you win less money when you are ahead. sure you risk a free card vs a J or a Q, but of the 3 overcards that can fall, one improves your hand anyways.

stoxtrader · #5 06-03-2005, 02:41 PM

I just noticed villain's stats. I like your line more now, because raising a hand worse than yours here would really be out of line for that type of player. i think a check fold here is also a possible play.

my line would be to call down every street, but that's a default and not sure correct.

andyfox · #6 06-03-2005, 02:47 PM

Villain may also have been thinking that the second ace made it less likely that you had one. The play of calling a flop bet and then betting out on the turn when the top card pairs looks suspicious nowadays anyway.

DcifrThs · #7 06-03-2005, 03:27 PM

i dont like it. there's a flush draw out there and you simply raised and got 3 bet. called and check called the flop. your turn bet could be seen as weakness and trying to take the pot there, therefore, he could raise a lower poket pair or QTs JTs which he'd probably 3 bet from the bb as well.

as for the stats 1.1 af is an underestimate here. again, its average bet + average raise/ average call so it overestimates overall agression in front and underestimates it behind (and especially in teh blinds).

i simply check call every street to induce a bluff and MAYBE bet the river.

-Barron

Equal · #8 06-03-2005, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just noticed villain's stats. I like your line more now, because raising a hand worse than yours here would really be out of line for that type of player. i think a check fold here is also a possible play.

my line would be to call down every street, but that's a default and not sure correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chack-calling the turn and river is also my default play. I think we definitely have to see a showdown here. Let's give a worse hand a chance to keep betting.

imashyboi · #9 06-03-2005, 08:52 PM

This is a interesting hand. I haven't played 30/60 but from what I heard on this forum there are lots of blind defense when it comes down to just the blinds. In this types of game, mental strategy is applied more than the standard 15/30 games. Players are quickly to raise with a small PP even if an A is out when its HU.

Check/Call is probably the default play here. I was thinking of making it 3-bets on the TURN to show his hand. After thinking about it, I don't believe he's going to fold QQ or KK in this spot so thats not going to work.