Odd line... how much did I screw up and how badly?

[Lmn55d]

Hey I was talking to Our House and I did a little preflop calculation and figured I'd post it here to get your thoughts. The key variables here are the 25% I thought it gets capped and the adjustment of 7.5:1 to 10:1 to make up the times you hit, lose, and get owned (this part is the key so I want your opinions on the adjutment).


25% of the time hero is getting 13.5:3 and 75% he is getting 10.5:2 which averages to 11.25:2.25.

If we say he needs 10:1 or 22.5:2.25 (instead of 7.5:1) to make up for when he hits a set and lose he needs to make up the difference between 11.25 and 22.25 which is 11 sb or 5.5 BB.

[Victor]

so you are saying when you hit a set you need to average netting 5.5bb after the flop?

OK Metetron, you wanted to generate some discussion about the hand other than the river?

Our House: metetron's post.....
Victor: my statement was a a joke
Our House: nono
Our House: i mean preflop
Our House: i turbo muck
Victor: i call it
Our House: why do so many call it
Our House: UTG isn't known, there's a cold caller and a TAG 3 bets
Victor: 5.5:1
Our House: barely
Our House: it's a sh!tty 5.5:1
Victor: if capped its about 4.3:1
Our House: right, but there are different 5.5:1s
Our House: 5 limpers and you're SB is a lot different of a 5.5:1
Our House: and it also matters how many players have PPs
Our House: with a raiser, cc'er and a 3-bettor, it's much more likely that there are more PPs in there
Our House: seriously cuts down your chances
Victor: set over set is fairly uncommon
Our House: you're right when there's only 1 PP
Our House: 2 makes it worse
Our House: 3 is bad
Our House: 4 is terrible for you
Our House: plus, they don't fold pairs, so you can get setted on the turn and river also
Our House: everyone is spoiled from hitting sets and winning big pots
Our House: they forget the losses
Victor: pairs and sets are fun
Our House: but not +EV
Our House: just fun
Victor: im not sure
Victor: i think its profitable
Victor: not a gold mine
Victor: but just playing for set value should work

Metetron, I think the preflop call is slightly -EV just to hit a set. If you're going to play the hand the way you did, preflop is even more than slightly -EV.

[Lmn55d]

right, if the two variables I included are correct. The adjustment of 7.5:1 to 10:1 was somewhat arbitrary. I think preflop is close but fine. I think flop is 10 times worse.

EDIT: The adjustment I came up with to 10:1 already takes into account reverse implied odds. So, if my logic is correct, you need to make 5.5BB the times you hit and your hand holds up.