The Dilemma

[UOPokerPlayer]

Haven't read all of the responses yet. I'm glad that this turned into a more hypothetical example that talked about more than this hand.

So my goals in this hand, and poker altogether, are to make my opponent make mistakes according to the fundamental theory of poker. The mistakes are -

1. Opponents calling with worse hands
2. Opponents folding better hands
3. Opponents paying too much to draw

Of course, the bigger mistakes the better, the more +EV the merrier.

So which option acheives this goal the most? First let's look at what happens when I pursue each option.

1. If I raise -
1.I'm going to thin the field. As I said in my original post, I thought that people just calling the initial bet signaled weakness, especially on such a draw heavy board. When I raise to 50, or 65, or 85, I'm going to have less opponents to deal with on future streets.

2.I'll also take the lead in the hand, which significantly increases the likelihood that it will be checked to me on the turn. At that point, I'll be able to take a free card or keep the pressure on.

These two advantages are really similar and it comes down to the same thing, which they are raising my pot equity. I raise my pot equity by knocking out hands like 56 or 89. Also when I get a hand like 99-AA to fold, I'm making money by having a better hand fold, or let me draw cheap. And hell, no one has shown real strength, I could pick up a nice pot right here.

If I call -

Why would I want to thin the field? Why would I want like Kxs to fold to my big flop raise when I can keep him in and stack him when the flush card hits? Well a couple of points here -

1. The flush card hits ~1/6 of the time
2. The flush card only makes me money if my opponents have Kxs or Qxs, I may not get paid off by Q-high flush.
3. If I just call, and try to build the pot when the flush card hits, my hand is transparent. Overpairs don't stay around, straights go for the cheap showdown and maybe even fold, and sets only stay in if they have odds to suck out on me.
4. Hands like overpairs I'm ahead of but will take the lead if the turn bricks or run away when it's obvious I hit. I want these hands all in on the flop with me.
5. My straight draw sucks. This is really just applying to this hand, but i can really only like a 4 to hit and could still be behind. A 9 kills action from hands that are behind, so it's more like I have a gutshot than anything.
6. We're assuming my raise will blow out a lesser flush draw, that's not always the case.

There are also considerations about hands beyond this hand. If I'm calling with draws and raising to blow them out, I'm pretty easy to play against. I don't give this too much value because I don't think the majority of NL200er's are thinking about this. But the smart ones are, and the dumb ones look at you as just bluffing and will pay you off more often.

I think then raising is better for a lot of reasons.

1. I can win the pot with a hand that could end out being ace high, or even worse the sucker end to a straight.
2. I can win a much bigger pot when I make a flush or straight, because by betting when I hit, I'm not 'waking up' to a hand, but just continuing aggression. Also there is more money in the pot.
3. I make my hand more often, because I can get a free card more frequently.
4. I get paid off more in the future because I'm betting more with more hands.
5. If I get all in, I've got 9 outs to the nuts and 4 pretty good outs. My ace could be good against an 89 or KK also. There's a lot of dead money in the pot. I'm probably at least getting the odds and have a neutral EV if all my money goes in here, and I still get the metagame effects so I don't mind that at all.

As I said at the beginning of this post, I want to make my opponents make mistakes according to the fundamental theoreom of poker. Raising is better on all 3 rules.

1. Opponents are much more likely to call with worse hands on later streets if I raise the flop. My hand is obvious when I dont raise. This not only applies to this hand but later hands.
2. It's very possible that I end up with just ace high on the river (~40% of the time). Raising is the only way to have better hands fold.
3. Once I raise, I take the lead in the hand and make it cheaper for me to make my hand. In this one, my opponents are not charging me properly to draw, they're making a mistake, I'm making money.

[UOPokerPlayer]

I bet 50 and BB pushes. Everyone else folds and I call the extra 6. BB shows 910 and I whiff.

God bless opponents with small stacks. (when they win)

[MTBlue]

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If I dont raise, I cant respect myself in the morning.

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Respect is all you'll have left in the morning.

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