Variance stories

[AKQJ10]

I gather that bad beat stories are frowned upon on this forum, and I can understand why. I mean, it's not like anyone wants to listen to your story about that time at Oceans Eleven when you had pocket queens and three jacks were on the board by the turn so you felt confident of winning a decent pot, but THEN THE CASE JACK CAME UP ON THE RIVER ALLOWING SOME DONK WITH ACE-SMALL TO DRAW OUT ON YOU....

Sorry, I digressed. So, no bad beat posts. But I think maybe it would be beneficial to share another related kind of story, that of swings in short-term results. Yes, in theory all should be settled with the simple statement that poker is a high-variance, positive-EV game to those who play it properly. But most of us are going to go through ups and downs, sometimes dramatic ones, and during that time we're going to doubt ourselves. It's human nature. So I figure that those who are more experienced (and I don't really think I fit in that class often, but I have had some swings) can at least put a human face on the variance by sharing our stories.

So this one isn't all that great (less than 50 big bet swings) but I'll share it anyway in case it's helpful to someone. Last Monday through Wednesday I went on a mini-vacation to Atlantic City. Monday was fine: I played some $2/4 and $3/6 at the Borgata, was down for part of the day, but finished up about $25. Tuesday was just awful -- I started in the Showboat's new room playing $2/4 and getting drawn out on. Flop trip 8s - board double-pairs with a jack on the river and lose to jacks full. Pick up kings - get beat by 87 or something for two pair. Flop a nut straight (J9 on QT8)- an older-looking rock bets into me on the river when the board pairs tens, I stupidly raise, he mercifully calls and shows T8. Then to the Taj for some $2/4 kill Omaha 8 - I fold a set of jacks when four diamonds show on the board (I was probably in hold 'em mentality; in Omaha the fourth flush card makes it less likely to be out) and lose half a pot. Then to $3/6 hold 'em and more frustration: flop a set of treys on a suited diamond board, so I have to play it fast - fourth diamond on the turn, but I have to stay in and even make a crying call. On it goes. At one point I'm stuck probably $250 for the day. In the end I made a bit of a comeback to down $150 or so for the day -- most of that in the $2/4 games, only about 50 in the $3/6 hold 'em!

But Wednesday -- ah, glorious Wednesday! It starts out inauspiciously in a fairly tough (for me) $3/6 game, but I soon decide to move to a $2/4 populated with a bunch of tourists. Several hours later I've turned my day's $220 buyin into $453! Then a bit more $3/6, a small loss there, and an uncanny hour of $1-2 no limit. During that time I held kings, jacks twice, and tens twice, and I correctly figured my table image was pretty maniacal when a pair of sevens reraised me all-in and I called. So, I doubled my $60 min buyin there, and generally had a wonderful Wednesday that not only made up for Tuesday but paid most of my trip expenses.

Now, I know the long-timers are rolling their eyes at how mundane this swing is, and I wish I could do the same while it's going on. But these things go to your mind, no matter how much you know better, and that's really the only point of this post.