More bubble follies

[AKQJ10]

I've mentioned that my bubble play has shown signs of being a major leak, but past attempts at posting multiple hands haven't worked so well due to Pacific's lack of reasonable hand histories. So I'll try transcribing a few key hands one at a time.

Please comment on my play on all streets:

General context: Pacific $4+$0.50 20-seat sit-and-go (pays $40/24/16). I've been hitting some insane cards and i'm the chip leader six-handed.

Table image: I think by now opponents see me as a somewhat aggressive player who's shown a few monster hands, but who also is going to try to steal at times.

Hand #1

Stacks are (starting to my left):
T2834
T2362
T740
t2751
T2717
T4596 (me)

I'm in the big blind with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ; blinds are T75/150


UTG calls; 1 fold; CO calls; button and SB fold; I check.

Flop (T525):

5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet 400. UTG calls.

Turn (T1325):

2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked through.

River (T1325):

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check; Opp. bets T450; I fold.



My analysis: betting on the flop with overcards may have been a bit dumb, since by now I think everyone expects me to steal. But in the BB the flop may have hit me, so it was worth a shot -- probably too big a bet. I think check-folding the river is fine given the chances he's a call-with-any-ace type (no specific read). I lost some chips here, but mostly just missed the board entirely and got my semibluff with overcards called. If I'd turned a king or even an eight, I'd go for the kill.

Agree / disagree?