A6s in the BB. A few decisions requiring input.

[jjacky]

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have a look at the definition at SSHE. what i am talking about is exactly reversed implied odds. nothing is wrong with a call on the turn (if you pick up a good draw). but the possible necessity to call on the turn makes the call on the flop wrong (reversed implied odds!).

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You are severely mistaken. I suggest you take your own advice and read about reverse implied odds and backdoor draws yourself. This situation does not have anything to do with reverse implied odds.

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i took my own advice before i wrote it here. i read through the definition in SSHE and it helped my point. i wouldn't have wrote this without reading the definition.

*edit*
to the backdoor stuff...
an easy example (you know that, but i write it anyway to make my point clear):
say you have 10% chance to win the pot (9:1 odds) and you get 11:1 for a call (flop). after that call you have a 50% chance that your chance to win goes up to 20% and a 50% chance to get it down to 0. on the turn you are faced with another bet, laying you 7:1. if you don't improve you fold, if you do improve you call of course. both calls appear to be correct. but now lets look at the results:
in 100 hands you will lose 1 sb 50 times, lose 3 sb 40 times and win 13 sb 10 times for a total of -40 sb or -0.4 sb per hand!

i am positive that this concept applies here.

[Piiop]

Ok, well then read it again because you're not getting it.

Reverse Implied Odds (from SSH): 1) The post is small 2) You are still on the preflop or flop betting rounds. 3) You have a weak made hand that may be best now, but is easy to draw out on.

Ok, so of these 3, the only similiarity is that we're only on the flop. We have no made hand and the pot is getting large.

Example: 92o in the BB flop is 9c 8c 2s against a few limpers. It's a weak made hand that is easy to draw out on. Any overcards, str8 draws, and flush draws will be able to draw. They are getting the implied odds from US. We will be the ones paying them off when they hit.

Implied Odds: Extra bets we make when we hit our hand. Turns a breakeven or slightly -EV pot odds call into a +EV one.

Backdoor Draws: A backdoor flush is 23:1 dog which equals about 1 out. However, it's worth slightly more because when we don't pick up the draw on the turn, we aren't calling a bet. Also, when we hit the draw, it's unlikely our opponents put us on that hand and therefore we usually can make up extra bets. All this totals up to 1.5 outs. Same for 1 gap str8 draws. 21.5:1 dog, 1.5 outs. You can discount *slightly* for splitting, not paying you off, whatever but very much.

[Piiop]

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*edit*
to the backdoor stuff...
an easy example (you know that, but i write it anyway to make my point clear):
say you have 10% chance to win the pot (9:1 odds) and you get 11:1 for a call (flop). after that call you have a 50% chance that your chance to win goes up to 20% and a 50% chance to get it down to 0. on the turn you are faced with another bet, laying you 7:1. if you don't improve you fold, if you do improve you call of course. both calls appear to be correct. but now lets look at the results:
in 100 hands you will lose 1 sb 50 times, lose 3 sb 40 times and win 13 sb 10 times for a total of -40 sb or -0.4 sb per hand!

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This is not reverse implied odds.

[HajiShirazu]

I would just fold the flop here. Your backdoor straight isn't worth 1.5 outs, as has already been mentioned, it's worth more like half to 3/4 of an out. The bd flush is your strongest draw, the ace maybe 1.5 or 2. So it's close but then you have to consider that you don't really have great implied odds on any of these, plus you're out of position, that makes me lean toward the fold.

[jjacky]

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Ok, well then read it again because you're not getting it.

Reverse Implied Odds (from SSH): 1) The post is small 2) You are still on the preflop or flop betting rounds. 3) You have a weak made hand that may be best now, but is easy to draw out on.

Ok, so of these 3, the only similiarity is that we're only on the flop. We have no made hand and the pot is getting large.


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i read the definition in the glossary. that one is different: "the ratio of the amount of money now in the pot to the amount of money you will have to call to continue from the present betting round to the end of the hand."

but i don't think it's juicy to discuss whether or not we have to call it reversed implied odds or not. but it's certainly a problem that we have to pay so much more on the turn if we catch a draw with the next card.

[jjacky]

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*edit*
to the backdoor stuff...
an easy example (you know that, but i write it anyway to make my point clear):
say you have 10% chance to win the pot (9:1 odds) and you get 11:1 for a call (flop). after that call you have a 50% chance that your chance to win goes up to 20% and a 50% chance to get it down to 0. on the turn you are faced with another bet, laying you 7:1. if you don't improve you fold, if you do improve you call of course. both calls appear to be correct. but now lets look at the results:
in 100 hands you will lose 1 sb 50 times, lose 3 sb 40 times and win 13 sb 10 times for a total of -40 sb or -0.4 sb per hand!

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This is not reverse implied odds.

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whatever you call it. it's true.

[Piiop]

Interesting, the definition is the glossary is actually effective odds from TOP, I think. However, the extra turn bet you must call already factored into the value of the backdoor draw since you won't ever call the bet when you don't improve.

Regarding your example, you didn't factor in the times you hit your draw on the river and gain at least 2 sbs from the river bet, and usually 4 sbs for 2 bets on the river. So given your specific %'s, calling has an EV of greater than -.6.

Also, I'm not sure why you chose those specific numbers, but 10% is a fairly low estimate for your chance of winning from the flop as is your turn %. These will usually be more like 15-20% and 25-30%.

[jjacky]

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Interesting, the definition is the glossary is actually effective odds from TOP, I think. However, the extra turn bet you must call already factored into the value of the backdoor draw since you won't ever call the bet when you don't improve.

Regarding your example, you didn't factor in the times you hit your draw on the river and gain at least 2 sbs from the river bet, and usually 4 sbs for 2 bets on the river. So given your specific %'s, calling has an EV of greater than -.6.

Also, I'm not sure why you chose those specific numbers, but 10% is a fairly low estimate for your chance of winning from the flop as is your turn %. These will usually be more like 15-20% and 25-30%.

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the different definitions are strange indeed. i don't think it's our fauld [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i have chosen the numbers to make my point clear. i think the 10% is pretty close to the given hand. 4% for each backdoor draw +2% for the ace overcard + runner runner miracles.
the 20% is pretty close to the real winning chance after picking up an inside straight draw or flush draw. in the real hand the are the possibilitys to pick up an inside straight draw or a straight draw + flush draw. the first is bad the later is nice, both together doesn't change very much imo. the possibility to get more callers and the risk to get raised on the flop or turn i eqaled to zero (i think in the given hand the risk to get raised or to have to pay 2 BB on the turn outweights the positive effect on the pot odds of the aditional callers you might get). i didn't consider that we have to pay off a bet on the river if we are beat (pretty low, but might very well be the case if we catch an ace). if we consider to win a BB on the end in 8% of the cases (when we hit a backdoor; the probability is too high btw because we have to fold some inside straight draws on the turn) we gain 16 extra small bets per 100 hands. after that consideration we would have a loss of 0.24sb per call on the flop. even if we should be able to collect 4sb on the river we would have a loss of 0.08sb per call. in this case we had a small loss, even with very favorable asssumptions.