Two ways for runner runner, stay for the turn?

smcannon · #1 06-20-2005, 12:03 AM

I had two ways to hit runner runner, but have no idea what the odds are of hitting them are so I folded with intent to ask on here. What are my odds here?

Paradise Poker 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero folds.

Turn: (6.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks.

River: (6.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Results in white below: 
MP1 has 9d 9c (one pair, nines).
MP2 has As 2c (one pair, aces).
SB has 8h Qh (one pair, queens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 9.50 BB.

bottomset · #2 06-20-2005, 12:26 AM

you have maybe 2outs worth on the flop

easy fold

Boolean · #3 06-20-2005, 01:33 AM

I've spent a little bit of time on this post, because I feel it's part of my game that I think I'd get a lot from if I understand this correctly. I'm by no means any math whiz, but I've spent some time and I've crunched some numbers which may indicate that this can be called (giving some certain (very strict) circumstances).

First, right now, Hero is getting about 13:1 to call this flop. With both backdoor draws, Hero has about a 8.6% chance to make his straight or flush on the river:

For the straight draw:
(8/47)(8/46)+(8/47)(4/46)=~4.5% chance by the river

For the flush draw:
(10/47)(9/46)=~4.1% chance by the river.
Total: 8.6%

Getting 13-1 might even warrant a call for this, but to prove we can possible call this, I've calculated the EV for a call in this position giving 3 very strict circumstances:

1. All of the callers will go to the river.
2. The flop raiser will raise on the turn and river.
3. If you make your straight/flush it's best, you will raise, and everyone else calls.

First question, is this a possible scenario?

If so, I give us 3 outcomes besides folding:
1. We call, we miss the turn and fold, losing -1 SBs
2. We call, we make a card on the turn, but we miss the river, losing -3 SBs
3. We call, we make our flush or straight, and we win 38 SBs (14+8+16 = 38)

For the first scenario, we'll hit the turn with one of our cards about 47% of the time, (4 kings, 4 queens, 4 eights, 4 sevens and the 6 remaining hearts for a total of 22 total outs. (22/47)=~.468 rounded up to 47%) so we'll miss approximately 53% of the time.

We've established that 8.6% of the time, we will make our straight or flush, and win on the river. So, of the remaining 47% we make our first card, 38.4% we'll miss it on the river, costing us 3 SBs.

EV formula:
(.53)(-1) + (.384)(-3) + (.086)(38)
-0.53 + -1.152 + 3.268 = 1.586

Is my math correct? And if so, that means the final pot on the river could be as small as 20 SBs and the EV would still be positive. Thoughts?

SoftcoreRevolt · #4 06-20-2005, 01:49 AM

Since your BDSD is a no gapper, that combined with the BDFD gives you just enough to make this call, especially considering you'll close the action each time if the PF raiser continues his aggression so you can face the field with only one bet after the check raise, making your implied odds a bit sweeter.

Don't show results.

mfreemba · #5 06-20-2005, 02:30 AM

This is what I would consider in thinking about this call.

A backdoor flush is worth about 1.5 outs and backdoor straight of 3 consectutive cards are also worth about 1.5 outs giving you a total of 3 outs. Pot odds required to call with 3 outs are 14.3 to 1 and in this hand you are only getting 13 to 1, so from a pot odds standpoint you should fold. However, if you also consider implied odds and you hit one of the draws you will likely get over 14 to 1....however when you hit the turn card most of the time you will have to pay 1 more big bet to see the river as you would expect the raiser to raise the turn. There is also the small possibility of my flush being dominated by Axs.

Having considered all this I likely would have folded as this isn't quite a strong enough draw in my opinion. I would say calling or folding is about the same expectation wise and neither is a big error.

aK13 · #6 06-20-2005, 02:31 AM

Standard fold.

caggin · #7 06-20-2005, 02:35 AM

You might be getting about 1:13 odds to make your straight or flush BY THE RIVER, but you're NOT getting 1:13 pot odds on the flop. You aren't taking into consideration future bets, particularly the double sized bets on the turn. You're getting at best, something like 3:13 or 1:4. Half the time you won't improve on the turn and can fold without paying more, but sometimes you'll also run into raises.

Your EV calculations are using some very unlikely assumptions. First, it's unlikely that all callers will go the river. Second, it's highly unlikely that if you make your hand and raise the river, everyone's gonna call. Add in the possiblities of someone raising the flop and/or turn, and that you make your hand but it's no good (or a split), and this is clearly -EV.

Boolean · #8 06-20-2005, 02:59 AM

First, nitpicky, but my odds for making the straight or flush by the river is 10.6:1 approximately. Does that mean I'd need 21.2:1 to call on the flop? The ~50% of the time I *do* hit something on the turn, I might be getting odds to call a raise.

Secondly, the formula does assume very unlikely circumstances, but given the right table, I feel it's possible. If the 2 other callers are both extremely passive, it's very unlikely I'd run into a raise, and even if they fold on the river to the aggressor's bet, I'd be winning a pot of about 30SBs which, under that formula is still EV+.

Sure, most circumstances, the call would be EV-, but sometimes, it can be profitable if you can go to the river cheaply.