Overcall this river? - Page 2

MrWookie47 · #11 11-09-2005, 05:16 PM

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Who's folding to our raise?

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Well, we've got 2 behind us. I'd like to play this hand against as few opponents as possible.

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Really? I only count one who hasn't put any money in. All the others are def. calling one more. This is a great spot to wait for the turn to raise.

madscratch · #12 11-09-2005, 05:19 PM

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Short answer is no one is folding to the raise. The only hope in a raise is pushing SB out, but only if he is tight which our read says he isn't. Everyone else is getting odds to draw with one more bet back to them.

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But we didn't know BB would fold to the 1 bet. Getting SB and BB to both fold also leaves no one to act behind us, relative to the flop bettor. And we may bet it check to us on the turn. These all seem like good reasons to raise to me.

Granted, the pot is small, but I just don't see calling the flop to be the right play. I want to raise or fold, but I don't want to fold an overpair, so I'm raising.

Wizard0965 · #13 11-09-2005, 05:23 PM

BB bet out on the flop meaning he likes part of his hand, with two limpers after then us raising he's getting 10:1 on his money right now (assuming SB folds) and I know very few hands not calling with those odds.

MrWookie47 · #14 11-09-2005, 05:26 PM

This is poor thinking. With no reads at 0.50/1, it is highly unlikely that BB is going to bet/fold. People at these stakes just don't do that commonly. Hell, it's uncommon at higher stakes. Go back and read the two overpair hands section of SSH.

Buckmulligan · #15 11-09-2005, 05:27 PM

This hand made me puke. h

#16 11-09-2005, 05:29 PM

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This is a great spot to wait for the turn to raise.

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Thinking about this, you're probably right (lacking a preflop raise), although the 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] gives various drawing hands a reason to hang in, and taints our outs (the remaining 8s could complete a straight).

I make it close, but yeah, a turn raise will punish bad draws more than a flop raise will.

madscratch · #17 11-09-2005, 05:41 PM

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This is poor thinking. With no reads at 0.50/1, it is highly unlikely that BB is going to bet/fold. People at these stakes just don't do that commonly. Hell, it's uncommon at higher stakes. Go back and read the two overpair hands section of SSH.

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OK, I will. So if my raise is wrong, are we just calling because our hand is weak and vulnerable and there are too many opponents to be able to really protect it?

Buckmulligan · #18 11-09-2005, 05:41 PM

I think waiting for the turn is pretty bad - really bad. Here are two reasons why we would wait for the turn:
a) slowplaying purposes: One could make the argument on this board that we should wait and pop the turn. With 88 this option is obviously bad because we are not leaps and bounds ahead, and cards can be given that beat us pretty frequently. With a hand like AA or KK, however, this isn't that bad of an option, as we are hardly ever getting beat by the turn.
b) We have a paper thin edge and would like to see where we stand after the turn. This is also not the case, as our estimated equity (40% maybe?) on the flop doesn't make our hand that marginal.

Go ahead raise the flop. Since you didn't raise the turn as that 9 is not a scary card.

MrWookie47 · #19 11-09-2005, 05:50 PM

I think our edge is indeed pretty darn thin. Granted, we don't have a flush draw to worry about, but any broadway (20 cards) is sad times with 4 villains. We'd also rather not see a 7, and 4 isn't all that great either. At least a 6 gives us an OESD.

We also can see where we stand if a scare card falls even if we call here. If it's two bets to us, we know we can fold. This is clearly better than raising the flop, an overcard falling, and then we get check/raised.

#20 11-09-2005, 05:51 PM

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Who's folding to our raise?

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Well, we've got 2 behind us. I'd like to play this hand against as few opponents as possible.

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Really? I only count one who hasn't put any money in. All the others are def. calling one more. This is a great spot to wait for the turn to raise.

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But you would raise only if no overcard came? I would be in a troublesome guessing mode if an overcard came and someone bet into me after calling or betting the flop. If I raised and the flop-bettor would fire again, I could assume that my 88 is not good. If someone else opens fire I could assume he hit or slowplayed something. How often are you still good enough on the turn to raise there with a board like this? What has to happen that you fold UI?