SSH and Utility: The Case for the Terrible 20

[Fabian]

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eventually you will realise that the profitability of those hands is just an outcome of overall strategy

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Quoted for emphasis.

[ianlippert]

Not to mention the majority of players are losing players so those stats that you are looking at are skewed. For example I played 98o profitabily against a maniac yesterday at my local casino, but I expect if you check those stats 98o will be a big loser. Playing marginal hands is all about looking for the right situation, and I expect that these hands make up more than 10% of a good players profit.

[Zim]

As noted above, I've found your recommendations to ring true. Can't say whether playing 20 hands is optimal or not ... however ...

Poker is so much more interesting when you are actually playing it, as opposed to treating it as an assembly line.

But in any event, thanks for the reminder that the EV of AA doesn't come about in a vacuum. It requires the other hands to flesh it out a little.

Best,
Zim

[threeonefour]

for the record. his variation should remain almost unchanged. look at the variance of 30VPIP player and 15VPIP players its not a huge difference... at lease from the data i just casually glanced through.

your coefficient of variation however will change drastically if your winrate drops a small amount however.

[Zim]

Thanks threeonefour,

I had not figured on this. I had naturally assumed that the more borderline plays would be more susceptible to incorrect calls, and result in greater fluctuations.

This does not seem to be the case.

And, actually, if I look at my own play. The big swings generally come about more from the big pairs getting cracked, than limping in with K9s.

Thanks for the feedback.

Best,
Zim

[nomadtla]

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(catchy title, huh?)

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I've seen catchier but not many

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As a new player to limit, if I can make 80% of my EV by only playing half the general recommended starting hands, and compensate by playing twice the tables (8-10?), wouldn't this be near optimal?

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As new player to limit I see nothing wrong with restricting your preflop choices to minimize the dificulty of your postflop play. This will also help you from going bust before you even get your feet wet. In the long run it is a bad idea cause as many have said you become predictable and you are not making all that you could off the fish. At limits less then 1/2 I don't think many would notice and the few that do have more then enough fish to pick on rather then squezzing quarters out of a "predictable" player.

When I started LHE I did something similar only with regards to position. It looked something like.

Super Simple Super Tight Preflop strategy
Early Position
Raise: JJ+, AQs+, AKo (7 hands)
Call: 88+, AJs, KQs, AQo (6 hands)

Middle Position
Raise: eveything I would raise or call in EP (13 hands)
Call: KQo, AJo, and any 2 suited higher then ten (8 hands)

Late Position:
Raise: everything I would raise from MP (13 hands)
Call: all of MP's calls and 22+, A8s+, T9s, 98s, and any two offsuit that are higher then ten (24 hands)
* If first in raise with all playable hands in late position.
** If it's raised in front of you only play the hands you raise from EP and 3bet/cap with them

As you can see all totaled I was only paying 37 hands and it averaged out over the positions so I was playing about 13% of hands, and raising 6-7%

This worked till I got used to my play, and would probably show a decent win at 8-10 tables and keep you from blowing your bankroll in a hurry.
It will not win the maximum and it will not trick anybody but at 1/2 or lower you can make fairly easy money like this. You have to play them at least decently postflop as well.

Edited for further clarity and to add the low PP in late position category.

[Zim]

Thanks Nomad,

Much appreciated, that was exactly the sort of thing I looking for ... about two days ago, lol.

Dove into 2/4 limit over at Pokerroom, and decided to try to learn the game proper. Limited myself to two tables, and with SSH perched in one hand, I've been actually having a bit of fun trying to figure out the boards, all the hidden outs, pot equity, etc ...

It's rather fun to spot all the bad play. I mean, really bad. Capping the bets preflop with 94o kinda bad.

(he, naturally, flopped a straight)

I can't speak for the profitability (after 2341 rounds, I've earned exactly 20 cents an hour), but I'm new and have made some really stupid calls.

I'm certain my win rate would have been double otherwise.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks again.

Best,
Zim

[varoadstter]

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It's rather fun to spot all the bad play. I mean, really bad. Capping the bets preflop with 94o kinda bad.

(he, naturally, flopped a straight)


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If he flopped a str8 with 94o, it's certainly a bad play. <Sklansky> Do you see why? </Sklansky>

[Zim]

Hmm ...

Aside from the obvious (capping with a hand that will return fractions of your original investment, over the long term), I'm not quite sure.

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Oh geez, I just noticed it.

Zim hangs his head in shame.

95o

Honest.

[flair1239]

Someone needs to link the "Shnnia" post. That would answer most of the question right there.