nifty AA hand

[adios]

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and all and all I figure I earned $320 on this hand, the $160 extra that the limper put into the pot because I checkraised the turn instead of betting it, plus the $160 I didn't put it on the river.

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You didn't earn a full $160 extra on the turn checkraise, because the limper had a share of the pot equity at that point with his nut flush draw. For simplicity, let's say he had 20% equity. Thus, $320 went into the pot with that extra bet on the turn ($160 from him and $160 from you), of which he expects to win about $64 = 20% of $320. So your turn checkraise makes you about $96 (the difference between what he put in and what he can expect to get back).

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Right and this is given that Tommy's reads are perfect in these situations. If he's right on the river 95% of the time instead of 100 he saved himself $160 - ( .05 * 1760 ) if I counted right. His turn read if not 100% accurate could cost him some money as well. Not insignificant numbers but clearly not as much as the amounts Tommy is stating. Also Tommy's assuming that the the almost all in player would catch a card that would help the almost all in player on the turn thus setting up his turn check raise. That's probably not going to happen too often which means that not 3 betting the flop was probably a mistake that cost him some money IMO.

[Tommy Angelo]

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"I was about to bet the turn when I looked left and I saw that the button liked the king."

Can you provide any details about what exactly you saw? Thanks.

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It was nothing you and anyone who plays B&M hasn't seen a million times. You got a guy on the verge of all-in who goes from being disappointed and uninterested to being to hopeful and attentive. Some guys don't carry those feeling with them at all, even after they go all-in, and those guys are unreadable. Other guys have lots on the outside all the time. Still others, like this guy, only let their feelings to the surface at times of traditional weakness, such as going all-in or about to. Those guys especially, who are so reliable when their veneer cracks, all you have to do is look.

What exactly did I see? Did his eyes widen and his gaze fix? Did he gulp? Or tug on his ear? Did he eat an Oreo?

I saw all of that and none of that. I saw a guy who would bet if I checked. And it would be good for me if he did. So I checked.

I break poker down, at home, so that I can see what it is made of, and when I do, I see the grains of sand. But at the table, it's a beach.


Tommy

[scott8]

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I break poker down, at home, so that I can see what it is made of, and when I do, I see the grains of sand. But at the table, it's a beach.



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Life is beautiful.

[Tommy Angelo]

"are you raising any turn if the limper bets out ?"

Just the opposite. I'm calling any turn if he bets out.

[rory]

what's the opposite of call

[elindauer]

Well played Tommy.

Your flop call is excellent. You have the SB drawing dead, so of course you want to let him in and hope he catches up a little bit, especially since he won't make much with any draw he picks up. Similarly, you likely have the check-raiser beaten badly, so waiting to raise the turn will often win more from him too, not to mention letting you see how he reacts to a turn scare card completing the flush, which for you is significant information.

Your river fold is nice and read-based. It seems reasonable to me that after you check-raise a turn K, your opponent does not expect you to fold and will only bet if he can beat one pair on the river. As with many of your folds, it seems highly exploitable, but it also seems reasonable that your opponents are not taking advantage of your tightness by stabbing with made hands that are still second best when a scare card hits.

People rarely bluff when they have a made hand, it seems to me that you base many of your folds on this phenomenon. Nice hand.

-Eric

PS. As a detail, you didn't really make $320 this hand. The caller is going to beat you 20% of the time on the turn, so he only loses 80% of his extra bet, and gains 20% of your extra bet, for a net loss of 60% of a big bet, or $96. Your river fold is offset by the times you are wrong, which is hard to estimate but is surely less than a full big bet. On the other hand, you missed another gain you made relative to the straight-forward 3-bet the flop line, which is the nearly full small bet you got from the all-in guy on the flop (say, $75). He's about break-even on the turn so the money he puts in there doesn't help or hurt you.


So I figure you made... let's see, not $320, but $96 + $75 = $171 plus some fraction of a big bet for the river fold... maybe you made about... $320 compared to playing the hand straight-forward, 3-betting the flop and betting the turn. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Lawrence Ng]

The fact that the button is all in makes your river decision far easier and thus gains you that $160 which also makes slowplaying this flop even more so correct.

However, if it's HU on the river with the original limper then it would make folding the river a much harder thing to do when you know there is a chance that he will semi-bluff into that river if he knows you are the type of player who is capable of making folds like such. I definitely see myself having a hard time folding the river HU in this particular pot against this particular opponent.

Lawrence

[shant]

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this must be how you keep getting a steak and not Taco Bell night after night---

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He's missing out.