Got knocked out following HOH advice

[wpr101]

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This brings up a very interesting point, however. Often it is said "if you're going to call a reraise, just push in the first place, to increase your fold equity." This isn't always good advice. The point is that if you push, you will always be behind when you get called, and usually way behind. But if you make a smaller raise, depending on the players at your table, you stand a much greater chance of getting action from a lesser hand. For example, someone who wouldn't call your push with 66 could still reraise you all-in with that hand. Again, this takes us back to the nature of the table, and what you can expect from the players still to act. I don't think there's a specific "right" play for KQs in middle position.

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Why I do agree with this somewhat I don't think it makes complete sense. The all-in move looks more desperate and the pocket 6s might be just as likely or more likely to call. A lot of times a really strong hand like AA, KK, AKs, or QQ will limp or make a smaller raise because they want some action. Actually, when someone minraises it seems real suspicious. Despite all this, when I have made an all-in move with KQs and am called I am usually behind in the hand.

[augie00]

I hate this spot in MTTs. I do not know exactly what inflection points are (I have HOH but I have not read it) but I'm assuming it has something to do with your stack size in relation to the blinds.

I do not think there are any arguments for pushing here with 10x the BB. You might get called by something worse, but you probably won't. You are not in the total desperation zone yet (10x BB is plenty to work with, and it's barely below average!) and you should be looking for a GOOD shot to double up.

Bottom line is, I hate to push where I know someone might make a hilarious donkey call with A2o and STILL BE AHEAD. Man that makes me mad.

[hurlyburly]

Actually this looks more like a poor understanding of EV. Your push here is -EV.

With 8200 chips vs 400/800 blinds, and with winning the blinds as your goal, you should only push a hand that has a reasonable chance of winning a showdown. No weaker unpaired hand will call you.

Winning the blinds nets a gain of 14% of your current stack. Even if you give your opponents a tight range (99+), with more than 4 players left to act you are risking more than you are gaining. Expand that range to something reasonable (77+, AJ+, KJ+) and you are in horrible shape.

I'll leave it up to someone else if they want to get nitty with the math, but that's how I try to calculate it at the table.

[hurlyburly]

Great post!

I would say it's even more -EV for the fact that the table is somewhat tight. I had to restrict the calling range to 99+ only 2 off the button to see that pushing here with less than a pair of tens is clearly wrong. No way AK/AQ is folding here.

[hurlyburly]

Not sure how you get here:
"The push with KQs from mid position with no ante is EV+, but it is not hugely EV+."

From here:
"a reraise could be JJ or maybe a resteal."

And why on earth would racing JJ be a good thing?

[fnurt]

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Not sure how you get here:
"The push with KQs from mid position with no ante is EV+, but it is not hugely EV+."

From here:
"a reraise could be JJ or maybe a resteal."

And why on earth would racing JJ be a good thing?

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In this chip position, all-in against JJ would be a pretty favorable result, if you knew he had that hand. But when that's your best-case scenario, it makes your overall prospects pretty ugly...

[hurlyburly]

Coupled with the fact that 35% of the time you lose to the resteal, I'm starting to really hate KQs in middle position.

[illegit]

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And why on earth would racing JJ be a good thing?

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Uh, because you need to win all the chips and you don't have them and winning coinflips + stealing blinds at this stage is the only way you'll get them. The blinds are big and there's little to no room for post flop play. If you don't want to race how exactly do you plan to collect chips at this stage? Wait for monsters? no, can't do that. Stealing blinds? Yes, so push. If you steal them, good if you get called by JJ good. If someone wakes up with AQ-AK, AA/KK, bad but oh well. If you don't like this stick to cash games with deep stacks where you don't have to win every chip in play and wait for the big edges. Really not an option here though.

BTW I was in this same spot with KQs 3 off the button last night in a PP $500K qualifier. I had 9-10K and blinds were 500/1000. I open pushed when folded to and BB called with JJ. I couldn't have been happier (despite going bust with 24 left and only top 16 getting a seat).

Pushing this from middle position is +EV not because the hands that will call you won't be either huge favorites or coinflips, it is +EV because of the fold equity you have here. M of 6ish-8 is usually the hardest spot to decide whether to push or try to raise. If you raise 2.5bb here and get reraised, what do you do? If you are pushed into? Pushing with an M of 6 - 10 from middle position can be +EV with any hand given the position, the fact that it is KQ just gives us a coinflip vs possible pushing/calling hands such as 9's, 10's, and J's. But yes, you are often going to be behind when called, the aspect that the amount of time you won't be called plus the amount of time you will win when called (which isn't as dismal as you may think, but isn't exactly good by any means) makes this play +EV, not by a huge margin, but +EV nonetheless. You can make arguements for just raising here, and I'm not saying thats not the correct line here, and possibly higher +EV as you can push on any nonthreatning board after perhaps milking some extra chips, or you would have scared off a hand that would have called you pre flop and you would have lost to, but pushing is still +EV.

[illegit]

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With 8200 chips vs 400/800 blinds, and with winning the blinds as your goal, you should only push a hand that has a reasonable chance of winning a showdown. No weaker unpaired hand will call you.

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Yet some better hands will fold (player dependent but most Axs and small PPs).

When all fold you win 1200

Against a tight range of 99+ you're a 66-33 dog to double up.

Against a loose range of 77+, AJ+, KJ+ you're only a 57-42 dog to double up.

So 99+ is the top ___ % of hands? And the latter range is the top ___ % of hands? Given that info the EV calc will be easy (and undoubtedly +EV).