Do I bet this river?

[ML4L]

Hey Foxwoods,

Here is my take on the hand. And, FWIW, I've given this a ton of thought and am almost positive that I'm right (can't wait for Ray et al. to disagree with me now that I've said that... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

The greater the skill level of your opponent, the more reasonable checking becomes. There are two reasons for this. One is that a skilled opponent will be able to lay down his boat some percentage of the time when facing a bet. Throw the pot odds out the window. What hand other than KK puts in a big bet on the river here, given the previous action? The second reason is that a skilled opponent is going to check-raise bluff (with his 99/22) some percentage of the time. He knows what you have. More importantly, he knows what you DON'T have. And, he knows that you know that he COULD have quads. But, what percentage of the time will an opponent bluff here? I don't know, and neither do you. Meaning that, whether you decide to call a check-raise or fold to it, you have the potential to be making a HUGE mistake. Though it won't happen often, the magnitude of the mistake that you might be forced to make, coupled with the fact that you won't even always get paid off when your hand is good, might mean that you check.

But, it does not appear that your opponent fits this description perfectly. First, you already know that he has trouble laying down hands. Second, if he were good enough to lay the hand down, wouldn't he do it (or at least consider it) on the turn? So, the fact is, it looks like the opponent is calling a moderate bet on the river almost every time. Given that it is 6-1 that he does NOT have quads, you give up too much by checking behind here.

So, how much to bet? IMO, the larger the bet, the more likely it is that your opponent folds. And, as you pointed out, the larger you bet, the larger his possible check-raise, the larger the pot, and thus the larger the mistake that you might make. So, you want to extract as much value as possible without opening yourself to a decision for your entire stack. I think the best amount is an even $1000 or so (the pot has $2660 before you bet). I think that a little more is fine, as is a little less. I think that any amount much larger than $1500 is a mistake, with the magnitude of the mistake increasing with the size of the bet.

So, to answer your question, I like the bet amount OK. Sort of a "blocking bet" in position... I think you could have accomplished the same thing by betting a little more, but what you did is better than checking and far better than betting $2000 or so. It was a tough spot to be in at the table, so I think you handled it well.

Nice hand, and great post.

ML4L

[pete fabrizio]

You were obviously spooked by the size of the pot, you pansy.

[Matt Flynn]

you have the nut full and an opponent squarely on a hand he'll call with. bet the pot. more if he'd call more. do not underbet unless you think he'll really lay down second or third full for the extra money.

matt

[ML4L]

Hey all,

I don't think that most posters who replied truly understand the implications of stack depth, image, and hand reading here and how those things affect the river play, so here is a little more about that.

The stacks here are 900 times the sum of the blinds. If you are a 1/2 player, imagine playing with $2,700 stacks. If you are a 5/10 player, imagine playing with $13,500 stacks. I'd guess that those numbers are greater than some players' entire bankrolls for those limits...

Now, let's look at the hand, street by street. When the flop comes rainbow rags, Hero's bet signals overpair. When UTG flat-calls, it signals set or that he doesn't believe that Hero has an overpair. When the K comes on the turn, Hero will almost always check a hand other than a set. So, when Hero bets, it signals KK. It is clear that UTG is thinking this as well, as he doesn't raise the turn, and he doesn't lead the river to try to get value out of an AK/AA that bet the turn and would check the river. It is also clear at this point that UTG has a set. So, at this point, both players know what the other is holding.

Now, on the river, I guarantee the guy with 99 isn't thinking, "Awesome, I have a boat, I want to get all-in." He knows that the 4 changes nothing. He is still behind KK. Any river call that he makes is going to be a crying call. 1/2 players, would you make a crying call for $600? 5/10 players, would you make a crying call for $3000? If you are a winning player, I highly doubt it. So, why assume that UTG would gladly call $2000 here with his boat? And, the thought of his check-raising 99/22 here as anything other than a bluff is absolutely ridiculous. Is a tight, aggressive player going to call thousands of dollars here with an overpair or AK (the ONLY things that UTG can beat)?

At the same time, look at the position that Hero is in. Yes, he has the second nuts. But, just as UTG rightfully fears KK, Hero should rightfully fear 44. And here is the crucial thing: because the situation is SO transparent to both parties, UTG should be able to bluff check-raise the correct percentage of the time. If he check-raises the pot 1/12 of the time that he has 99/22 (all he has to do is look at the minute hand of his watch, and if it's between the 12 and 1, raise it up), Hero is faced with a break-even decision of whether to call the raise or fold (assuming that UTG would also check-raise the pot with 44).

So, here is the math. Assuming that Hero checks behind, he averages $2280 on the hand (he will win the pot 6/7 of the time). Now, let's assume that he bets $1500 on the river. He wins $4160 every time that he is called, $2660 every time that is he is not, and loses $1500 3/14 of the time (this is how often he will be check-raised). If UTG is going to call less than 34.1% of the time, then Hero is better off checking the river. So, the moral is that, against a good player who will check-raise bluff some percentage of the time and who will not pay off a significant bet here, you check the river. It isn't even necessarily important that UTG bluff the "correct" percentage of the time, because I don't think one can guess whether UTG will bluff too often or not often enough and thus cannot take advantage of his incorrect frequency.

But, as we established, it is probable that Hero will be called here. So, he bets. But, hopefully people can see that, against a very skilled opponent, you check the river here. And, even against an unskilled opponent, you need to bet an amount that he is going to call, or betting is a mistake. It is better, IMO, to undershoot than overshoot, which is why I think that somewhere around $1000 is the best amount.

So, I would urge players in these spots not to be blinded by their own hand or use logic such as "I have the second nuts. If I go broke, that's just how it goes." That is NOT how one plays deep stack poker.

Hope this helps.

ML4L

[etizzle]

If he thinks that hero has KK, he would've folded the turn. As someone has already stated, when the villain says 'i dont like that card,' he is just trying to get a reaction. If he put hero squarely on KK, he wouldnt say anything.

[edtost]

[ QUOTE ]
But, hopefully people can see that, against a very skilled opponent, you check the river here. And, even against an unskilled opponent, you need to bet an amount that he is going to call, or betting is a mistake. It is better, IMO, to undershoot than overshoot, which is why I think that somewhere around $1000 is the best amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

meta-hand consideration: i don't think hero, if he is thinking intelligently, reaches in his pocket/cashbox to buy to cover 1800bb's against a player who won't call $2000 here with 99 or 22. otherwise, hero is much better off playing a "short" stack of, say, 600bb's or so.

[AJo Go All In]

i agree with this although i would have used "pussy"

[evanski]

Precisely what I was going to say. If this player is good enough to think about check-raise bluffing with an overfull, or laying down an overfull to a bet on the river, why on earth would you want to be playing with 1800 bb's against him? I highly doubt there were other players at the table stacked so deep. Even more so, if he is that good, why play 1-2? I dont think situations come along very often where hed be given the opportunity to play this deep with someone. Even so, I like ML4L's post quite a bit. I probably would have potted it though, and expected a call from any boat. I dont think hed consider bluff raising, principally because I dont think hed give our hero credit for being able to lay down KK, so even with the insane odds, I would probably fold to a raise.

-Evan

[Wayfare]

[/ QUOTE ] I dont think he would consider bluff raising, principally because I dont think he would give our hero credit for being able to lay down KK, so even with the insane odds, I would probably fold to a raise.

-Evan

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is very good thinking. Would anyone really lay down KK enough of the time here to a check-raise to make it profitable, simply because you know that he knows you don't have quads?

Just because you know someone else doesn't have the nuts doesn't mean they will lay down to a large bet...

[etizzle]

boy i wish i was the one with the Ks full and 9k on the table. You coulda just given the guy 2000 dollars as a gift if you really wanted to be nice.

Bet the pot. I really dont think hes going to fold 99 or 22 here.