All righty Fellas...Stupid Probablity Question

[atnels]

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If there is a maniac at the table raising every hand, or if the player is seated to the left of several LPP players this will have a large effect on the observed VPIP.

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Just came across this thread, and since I'm bored at work on a Friday afternoon I'm going to start thinking about coding this up. What you mention here is the most intriguing part about the problem. I believe the whole thing will become a function of some type of "Table Aggression Factor," since a decent # of hands like AQo are obviously easy open-raises from anywhere on the table but could be easy folds in other spots when some mouse raises UTG and you're UTG+1. Other times, some uber-lag raises UTG and another donk reraises, you -could-be capping with AQo....

How is this going to affect the numbers of a good TAG over 100k hands? Probably not too much. But, it will have a drastic contribution toward the numbers over ~100 hands or so, which seems to be the motivation for asking this question in the first place....

I'm trying to figure out some kind of weighting to allow you to normalize and compare an EP raise in a weak/tight game with a LP cap in a loose/passive game.

Interesting post.