Do I cap this suited ace preflop?

[hornsandspurs]

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Guys, don't pay so much attention to the preflop raise. The turn is where the real mistake is.

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Exactly. Why are you not taking a free card on this turn? Are you trying to buy the pot right there versus three other players? Given that board, there are a number of straight and flush possibilities, most of which aren't folding. Also, no one with a 5 is folding, and it's unlikely that a 9 folds either.

There has been a lot of discussion about the preflop raise, but I'm really curious about OP's reasoning behind betting the turn rather than checking.

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OK, how about this (not that it justifies the bet, but just for arguments sake)...

To buy two (or more) more outs. Suppose AJ/AT of clubs stayed in on the flop with two over cards and a backdoor draw. Or what about T9 or 98? Couldn't a turn bet buy two or more outs? Is that justified in a 11+ BB pot if a better hand folds? Just a thought.

[afk]

I don't understand how this:

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There are 11.25 BB in the pot on the turn. It's checked around to Hero who bets. Assuming he has 8 outs (discounting the 4h) and 46 unknown cards, our drawing odds are 1:4.75. He bet 1BB into an 11.25BB pot for pot odds of 1:11.25.

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Results in this conclusion:

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I think the pot is large enough to justify a bet on the turn and its not to force people out.


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Could you further explain this?

There really isn't any value in betting the turn, with the possible exception of buying some ace outs. You really need a heart to win.

[NobodysFreak]

and we'll get that heart about one in five times. We have an equity in this situation because we have a 1 in five chance of winning the pot and the bet on the turn only represents 1/12 of the pot. Its the same reason why we could pump the flush draw on the flop. Our equity in the situation hasn't decreased enough relative to the size of the pot.
On the flop we stood to win by the river about 1 in 3 times. On the turn, it's now about 1 in 5. The only difference is there's more money in the pot. If no one calls, we take it down UI. If everyone calls we still have a 1 in 5 chance of winning. Not to mention any bets we collect on the river.

Let me put it another way: Are you folding to a turn bet? Are you folding to a turn bet if you're potentially the only caller? If not, why aren't you betting?

[afk]

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and we'll get that heart about one in five times. We have an equity in this situation because we have a 1 in five chance of winning the pot and the bet on the turn only represents 1/12 of the pot. Its the same reason why we could pump the flush draw on the flop. Our equity in the situation hasn't decreased enough relative to the size of the pot.
On the flop we stood to win by the river about 1 in 3 times. On the turn, it's now about 1 in 5. The only difference is there's more money in the pot. If no one calls, we take it down UI. If everyone calls we still have a 1 in 5 chance of winning. Not to mention any bets we collect on the river.

Let me put it another way: Are you folding to a turn bet? Are you folding to a turn bet if you're potentially the only caller? If not, why aren't you betting?

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Ok I think there are a few problems in your logic here, I'll try to sort them out.

First off, I think you're saying that putting a bet in on the turn gives you 11:1 odds while your odds of hitting are 4:1. This is wrong. You use pot odds to determine whether you would call a bet or not. For example, on the turn if someone ahead of you bet you'd be getting 12:1 on a 4:1 draw, so of course you call.

The concept of pumping a flush draw focuses on how many callers you'll get, not the size of the pot.

So on the turn, why would you put in one bet (when you most likely won't take it down UI, and you won't get enough callers to make betting your draw profitable) when you could just check and see the river for free? Especially since you're closing the action.

Folding to a bet on the turn is ridiculously unprofitable, but in most cases (including this one), so is betting, though maybe less so. The correct play here is to check. What it comes down to is the fact that betting the turn here is -EV.

[VoraciousReader]

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We have an equity in this situation because we have a 1 in five chance of winning the pot and the bet on the turn only represents 1/12 of the pot. Its the same reason why we could pump the flush draw on the flop. Our equity in the situation hasn't decreased enough relative to the size of the pot.
On the flop we stood to win by the river about 1 in 3 times. On the turn, it's now about 1 in 5. The only difference is there's more money in the pot. If no one calls, we take it down UI. If everyone calls we still have a 1 in 5 chance of winning. Not to mention any bets we collect on the river.


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I see where the thought process came from, but you really have several concepts jumbled here, and the result is kind of a mess.

We are about 1 in 5 to hit our flush, which should give us the winning hand. Therefore, we can certainly call a turn bet. That does not mean betting it is a good idea.

You should consider the money already in the pot when you are deciding to call or deciding to bluff. (I know you're not the OP, but for the sake of simplicity, I'm going to pretend you're playing this hand.) If you had one opponent here who checked to you, you might consider a semi-bluff bet. You would be risking 1 bet to take down a pot of 11 bets. And if you get called, you still have a reasonable chance to win. So you'd think about your opponent and whether he/she would likely fold this more than 1 out of 11 times if you bet the turn. If you think that's a reasonable expectation, go ahead and bet.

But when you're deciding whether to bet for equity you are trying to decide if you are getting full value on your investment. You want to put in less than your share of the money, while your opponents put in more than their share. We are interested in money currently going into the pot.

Since you are slightly better than 1 in 3 to win on the flop, if you bet/raise and get 2 callers, you have made money. You invested 2 dollars and the callers each chipped in 2 dollars. But of the 6 dollars that just went in , you can reasonably expect to win about $2.10. Your opponents can only expect to win $3.90 of their money back.

If you get 3 callers, it gets even better, because you expect to get $2.79 back on your $2 investment. So the more callers you get, the happier you are.

On the turn, however, you're now only half as likely to make your hand. So you need twice as many callers to be ahead on your investment. Not people who saw the turn with you, but people who actually call your bet. It doesn't matter how big the pot is now. Unless they're all folding (very unlikely with 4 to the turn) you are now generally losing money when you bet this turn. You may gain a smidge of expectation if you can fold out an ace, but probably not enough to compensate for the whole bet you spend...when the alternative was seeing the river for free.

Not only are you unlikely to get value out of a bet, but you are in last position and don't have to worry about having to call a bet behind you if you check.

Disclaimer: Not a math person, so anyone who wants to check these numbers, please do so.

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Guys, don't pay so much attention to the preflop raise. The turn is where the real mistake is.

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Exactly. Why are you not taking a free card on this turn? Are you trying to buy the pot right there versus three other players? Given that board, there are a number of straight and flush possibilities, most of which aren't folding. Also, no one with a 5 is folding, and it's unlikely that a 9 folds either.

There has been a lot of discussion about the preflop raise, but I'm really curious about OP's reasoning behind betting the turn rather than checking.

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OK, how about this (not that it justifies the bet, but just for arguments sake)...

To buy two (or more) more outs. Suppose AJ/AT of clubs stayed in on the flop with two over cards and a backdoor draw. Or what about T9 or 98? Couldn't a turn bet buy two or more outs? Is that justified in a 11+ BB pot if a better hand folds? Just a thought.

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1) Suppose AX (where X outkicks your 8) stayed in on the flop with two overcards. He's still in the hand when the turn is checked to you. Assuming the 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is no good, you probably have 8 outs at this point. You have 7 known cards (your two hole cards, the four on the board, and your opponent's assumed A) and 45 unknowns. Out of those 45 unknowns there are probably 8 hearts that improve your hand without giving someone a boat. So your equity is 8/45=17.78%, and 17.78% x 11.25 BB = 2 BB.

Now if your Ax opponent folds, you have two more outs. 10/45=22.22%, and 22.22% x 11.25 BB = 2.50 BB. So you're paying 1 BB to gain 0.5 BB in equity.

I believe you would have to buy 4 more outs in this situation to increase your equity by the same amount of big bets as your turn bet. If the pot was larger, then it might be different.

2) Suppose one of your opponents has T9 or 98. I don't expect someone with top pair to fold on the turn with a large pot. It's possible but extremely unlikely for most 1/2 players to make that type of laydown in a hand where only one opponent has shown any aggression.

I think the concept of buying outs with a big pot is more applicable on the flop than the turn because you only have one more card to come. Buying two more outs on the flop is much more valuable than buying two more outs on the turn. Of course all of this is highly dependent upon the size of the pot, your opponents, and the texture of the board. However, I think trying to buy outs is -EV in this particular hand.

I hope some of that makes sense.

i think limping preflop is slightly higher ev... i would never raise here anyway

check the turn too