$33: +EV play incorrect?

[async]

[ QUOTE ]
Seat 1: big99daddy (2145)
Seat 4: Dima74 (1715)
Seat 8: mamu35 (1240)
Seat 10: Shippou (2900)
Shippou posts small blind (200)
big99daddy posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Shippou [ 9c, Jh ]
Dima74 folds.
mamu35 folds.
Shippou raises (2700) to 2900
Shippou is all-In.
big99daddy calls (1745)

i felt like since we were on the bubble, I should definately be putting pressure on the next largest stack. If I calculate correctly even if he calls with the top 50% of hands, this is still a +EV play.

I am definately not calling here so my question is, would you just fold this and put presure on the smaller stacks instead? This to me seems like scared poker but on the other hand it has the potential to land me ITM more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he calls with 50% of hands, this is -EV. If he calls with 22+,A2+,K2+,QT+,JT+, then this is -EV. It becomes +EV when his calling range drops under 30% of hands. So if he calls with any pair, any A, and K9o+/K6s+, you should not push this. If he is any tighter then a push is +EV.