|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Hand...
[ QUOTE ]
99.9% of the aggressive stealers I've played against would either bet or checkraise this turn with a flush draw. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, many would. But your hyperbole is too much. There's a decent subset of these players who will ck-cl the the turn planning on C/Ring any river (flush or otherwise), IMHO. [ QUOTE ] If they have those hands they usually want to showdown with them for cheap. I see no reason why they would checkraise the river, they probably think there is a decent chance they are good and just want to showdown. [/ QUOTE ] I see no reason why they would want to do so either without a read on Krishan that is inaccurate (i.e., that he's no good and will call the river C/R with goofy stuff). But because I don't see why they would, doesn't mean that they don't have a reason. You don't think aggressive guys try and get an extra bet from a (presumably) unknown instead of just looking to SD a possible winner? I think that's more likely with a naked 5, but think you'll see this line from Ax a lot, and from a J sometimes, and from a PP often enough not to dismiss ot from the range. Do you agree with Stellar that an unknown's range given the action and board makes reraising out of the question? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Hand...
Well I'm not saying it's impossible that you will be raised by a jack or pocket pair here, but I just really can't remember it ever happening to me in a similar spot. As for the comment about the flush draw, I think if he's aggressive he seriously bets or checkraises about 90-95% of the time. What do you think that number is?
I don't think reraising is "out of the question" at all. But I think if your 3bet is called or reraised, you're winning here (not including splitting which we can ignore) somewhere between 50-60% of the time. Thats just a guess though...I really don't know. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Hand...
I think 75+% you'll see a bet or a C/R from a FD here - which is still a biggish number but not quite as high as I guess you think.
And I agree partially on the chances we're good -- I think when we're capped we're a decent dog; but I think when we're just called we're in very good shape. And, though I can't hazard a guess on the blended percentage, my thought is that we're called way more often than capped. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Hand...
[ QUOTE ]
And I agree partially on the chances we're good -- I think when we're capped we're a decent dog; but I think when we're just called we're in very good shape. And, though I can't hazard a guess on the blended percentage, my thought is that we're called way more often than capped [/ QUOTE ] Ya, what I was just trying to say with that 50-60 statement (which was a little cryptic), was that I don't think you are good the requisite 66% here if we assume villain never folds, and always reraises with better hands. If he folds some of the hands you are ahead of , we need to be ahead a greater percentage. |
|
|