Fright night - Page 2

stlip · #11 12-12-2005, 01:22 PM

My read was that it was an As or Ks. A limp reraise from a non-maniac is an awfully clear signal and unusual enough that I think you should often be able to make more precise reads in a situation like that without being guilty of MUBS.

I think your estimation that I'm good 85 percent of the time here is not the read I would go with.

#12 12-12-2005, 01:30 PM

grunch

preflop you have to cap this. flop facing two bets with a flush board and trips, I call too. turn...crap, possible royal within the range of hands he could be playing. You could be drawing dead or you could have 10 outs. That's a tough one. I think I have to call the turn. The river is a tough decision. Maybe it's a spew, but I think I raise/call a 3-bet. Complement him on the nice hand if he has the RF or SF.

bozlax · #13 12-12-2005, 01:37 PM

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My read was that it was an As or Ks. A limp reraise from a non-maniac is an awfully clear signal and unusual enough that I think you should often be able to make more precise reads in a situation like that without being guilty of MUBS.

I think your estimation that I'm good 85 percent of the time here is not the read I would go with.

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I agree that a limp-reraise usually indicates a good preflop hand, and in fact I'd say that 95% of the time it's AA. So, even by this read, it's more likely than not that he's holding a hand you beat, not 50/50. Include KK and AK in his preflop limp/reraise range and there are still way more hands that you beat than that you lose to that he'd still be playing the same.

Let's see: 6 combos of AA, 6 KK, and 16 AK, so 28 hands, and 7 of them have the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Is that right? Granted, it's more likely to be AKs than AK, but you don't think much of him so it could also be JJ or 99 if he thinks you're raising light to isolate him or something.

#14 12-12-2005, 01:39 PM

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The problem with this analysis is that you're only giving yourself a 50% chance of winning the hand. There are lots of hands that would be played in this manner by the players you describe than just hands that beat you. Again, just like in n00b's post, this is either results-oriented thinking or MUBS...you're way over 85% to win this hand, IMO, and can therefore safely cap the river.

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Had a similar river situation a couple of days ago. Jaxup was sweating me. I just called the river which saved me the extra bet when I lost, but Jaxup pointed out that long term you will be winning an extra bet if you raise. Long term you are good here a larger % of the time then you are beat. Making the correct decision, even if on this particular hand you get beat, will still be +EV over the long term.

SL__72 · #15 12-12-2005, 04:53 PM

Did he have AA w/ the As?

stlip · #16 12-12-2005, 05:23 PM

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My read was that it was an As or Ks.
I think your estimation that I'm good 85 percent of the time here is not the read I would go with.

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Let's see: 6 combos of AA, 6 KK, and 16 AK, so 28 hands, and 7 of them have the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

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OK, now you've made your preflop read. Next look at the flop and turn bets.

The man has a spade. (Not two, thankfully for me, since he only called the flop 3-bet.) There's really no doubt, so the only question is whether it is the A or the K.

You do make one point that I might use in some situations. People are perhaps a bit more likely to feel that confidence with an A rather than a K. So his LRR may be slightly more often an AA than a KK. His flop raise may be slightly more often the draw to the nut flush rather than the 2nd nut.

If I had thought about this at the time, which I did not, I think I still would have concluded that the slightly improved chances of his spade being the A and not the dreaded K were not enough to compensate for the possibility of losing the dead money overcall.

stlip · #17 12-12-2005, 05:38 PM

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Had a similar river situation a couple of days ago. Jaxup was sweating me. I just called the river which saved me the extra bet when I lost, but Jaxup pointed out that long term you will be winning an extra bet if you raise.

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Was there a potential overcall, as well? If you lose the overcall you don't win anything extra at all by raising when you have the best hand. You simply expose yourself to more risk for those times when you have the worst.

#18 12-12-2005, 06:36 PM

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Was there a potential overcall, as well? If you lose the overcall you don't win anything extra at all by raising when you have the best hand. You simply expose yourself to more risk for those times when you have the worst.

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No there wasn't an overcaller in my situation, but maybe I'm missing something. If you raise with the best of it and the bettor calls, you get one extra out of him. If he 3-bets and you cap, thats 3 extra bets. If you're even 51% favorite in these situations over the long run you're +EV.

I know it sucks to lose a big pot that you've been jamming, but IMHO worrying about how many bets you may lose is focusing on the wrong thing.

stlip · #19 12-12-2005, 06:57 PM

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Was there a potential overcall, as well? If you lose the overcall you don't win anything extra at all by raising when you have the best hand. You simply expose yourself to more risk for those times when you have the worst.

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No there wasn't an overcaller in my situation, but maybe I'm missing something.

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Yup, that's huge.

And MHIG he had A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

bozlax · #20 12-12-2005, 06:58 PM

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The man has a spade. (Not two, thankfully for me, since he only called the flop 3-bet.) There's really no doubt, so the only question is whether it is the A or the K.

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Huh. I actually was, somewhat, mis-reading the action; this is a nutty hand. Why you didn't cap preflop and flop is beyond me. But, given that you have a read on one Villan as having the IQ of cheese, and no usable read on the other Villan, I see nothing in the betting pattern that makes me slow down with the 4th-nut hand, when numbers 1 through 3 are all very unlikely.

Additionally, what makes you think that BB is going to suddenly get wise and fold? Or, actually, that he'll fold to 2 but not to 1? You've made it clear that you called on the river, BB called, MP1 flipped the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and YHIG, but that doesn't make it the right play.