I hate river folds

SoBeDude · #1 09-09-2005, 01:07 PM

Villian is 35/5/1.3 and one of 4 reasons I'm at the table. needless to say good table but high varience.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

I have enough notes on this player to know that he'll raise me light on the turn with just top pair and a marginal kicker. For example he's raised me on the turn before with A3 on a AQJ board and I raised PF and bet flop and turn.

So his raise on the turn means little and I think I'm ahead here enough to pop him. I can easily fold to a cap here as he's not aggressive and would only cap if I'm beat.

So instead he pulls a stop n go.

Once again, given is passivity, I think I'm beat here. IMO he'd only bet the river here with a big hand, at least 2 pair or better.

Good fold?

-Scott

shemp · #2 09-09-2005, 01:14 PM

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he'd only bet the river here with a big hand, at least 2 pair or better

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How many pairs do you have?

SoBeDude · #3 09-09-2005, 01:28 PM

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he'd only bet the river here with a big hand, at least 2 pair or better

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How many pairs do you have?

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Anyone is capable of a bluff. maybe even this guy.

-Scott

shemp · #4 09-09-2005, 01:32 PM

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he'd only bet the river here with a big hand, at least 2 pair or better

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How many pairs do you have?

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Anyone is capable of a bluff. maybe even this guy.

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You're making my head hurt. You just told me he needed a better hand to bet here. Now he might be bluffing. So how often does he bluff or misread his hand in this spot?

mmcd · #5 09-09-2005, 01:37 PM

I don't like that fold. River 4 straight could make the guy think "I might as well just bet my Kx since I'm calling anyways and since there's a 4-liner on the board, I know I'm not going to get raised, and might even get him to fold the winner."

If this guy's capable of raising light on the turn, I'd assume he's capable of betting the scare card on the river. I'm calling here.

SoBeDude · #6 09-09-2005, 02:16 PM

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he'd only bet the river here with a big hand, at least 2 pair or better

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How many pairs do you have?

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Anyone is capable of a bluff. maybe even this guy.

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You're making my head hurt. You just told me he needed a better hand to bet here. Now he might be bluffing. So how often does he bluff or misread his hand in this spot?

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Just because I say he' capable, doesn't mean I think it is a frequent event. Anyone, even that little old lady rock at the end of the table, is capable of a bluff now and again.

So the question is one of frequency.

-Scott

shemp · #7 09-09-2005, 10:29 PM

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So how often does he bluff or misread his hand in this spot?

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[...]

So the question is one of frequency.

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Mom have any kids that lived?

Anyhoo. Anyone I 3-bet on the turn, I call on the river.

Lestat · #8 09-09-2005, 11:25 PM

I think you should go a little easier on yourself. You're getting pretty odds on a call at 11 to 1. Still, from your description it doesn't sound like you think he'd bet the river 1 time in 11. So while it may have been a bad fold it didn't cost you anywhere near 11 bets. Again, from your description it may have cost you a fraction of a bet or it may have even been a profitable fold.

Moral: As a general rule, don't 3 bet the turn unless you know how to handle a river bet. That also means anticipating possible scare cards.

zombies kill · #9 09-10-2005, 01:38 AM

i agree with this thinking 100%.

most of the posters on this board use this same line of thinking in similar situations. i understand hes a crappier breed of player... but still, even the crappy players make some good plays once in a while. theres too big a chance that this is one of those spots in my opinion.

#10 09-10-2005, 04:35 AM

Personally I would NEVER fold in this spot HU against this type of opponent. I think he's bluffing/semi-bluffing a worse hand here often enuf to make the call correct, I mean jeez you're getting better than 10-1 on the call. He probably has you beat most of the time, but I think you still have to show this one down.