Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Limit Texas Hold'em > Small Stakes Hold'em

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-23-2005, 06:31 PM
Scotch78 Scotch78 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1
Default Turn Decision

Villain was something like 35/11 with an AF of 1-something after 150 hands. With this uncoordinated board, I don't think two pair is very likely, even for a 35% VP$IP. Also, I remember his flop and turn AF being the same (river AF jumped a bunch though), so I don't think he'll be slowplaying a ten very often. He seems aggressive enough to have raised TT preflop, but that still leaves nine combinations for a set. 64s is the only two pair hand I'd consider reasonable for him, but then I'd probably have to include 53s for the straight. The problem is that he'd play a lot of Tx hands, so I'm not sure what to do.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero . . .

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

Scott
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-23-2005, 06:41 PM
Bill Smith Bill Smith is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Camp Randall, Sec. O
Posts: 500
Default Re: Turn Decision

Well, obviously you called down and weren't happy about the result. Without a spectacular read that this person is 100% ABC, I'd be calling down as well and hoping to find AT, 2 diamonds, or to catch a 5-outer against his 2 pair.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-23-2005, 06:54 PM
silkyslim silkyslim is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Illinois
Posts: 359
Default Re: Turn Decision

[ QUOTE ]
Well, obviously you called down and weren't happy about the result. Without a spectacular read that this person is 100% ABC, I'd be calling down as well and hoping to find AT, 2 diamonds, or to catch a 5-outer against his 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
becasue he mised the turn 3-bet for value. but with his vpip i can just call down
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-23-2005, 06:54 PM
Scotch78 Scotch78 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1
Default Re: Turn Decision

[ QUOTE ]
Well, obviously you called down and weren't happy about the result. Without a spectacular read that this person is 100% ABC, I'd be calling down as well and hoping to find AT, 2 diamonds, or to catch a 5-outer against his 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I called down, and yes, he did have a set. But that's not really my point. When he check-raised the turn I remember thinking three things:

1) I don't think he's loose enough to have two pair
2) I don't think he's tricky/aggressive enough to be making a move with top pair (or a flush draw)
3) Folding feels really weak

Roughly once or twice a day I find myself in situations like this, where I have thought-out reasons for folding but "don't want to be weak-tight". As a 13/7 player, I'm very (overly?) conscious of playing weak-tight, so I end up calling down more often than not.

Obviously, I don't want to make it a habit of being results-oriented when the "results" are as short-term as who won a specific hand, but the overwhelming majority of the time my thoughts are accurate. That is, the villain ends up being within the range of hands I put him on.

Historically, hand reading has not been one of my strengths, but I seem to be improving and am unsure how far to trust these instincts.

Scott
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-23-2005, 07:11 PM
Nick C Nick C is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,582
Default Re: Turn Decision

I'd have to have a really strong read that Villain only checkraises monsters on the turn to fold here. And even if I did have that read, I probably wouldn't trust it enough and would call anyway.

One interesting thing about the situation on the turn is that in one way the checkraise shows a lot of strength and in another way it doesn't. There doesn't seem like a whole lot to connect with on that board, so when Villain checkraises, you have to wonder if he has a set. On the other hand, it's possible he's thinking the board missed you and his 88 or AT is beating your AK.

It sounds like you think Villain would have put in action on the flop with one-pair hands, though, and I agree that that's the approach many (but not all) players with JT or 77 would favor.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-24-2005, 02:49 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Turn Decision

Given the player and the action I dont see how you can call down this profitably. There is just no hand he is playing like this that doesnt beat you, 35% VPIP with an AF of 1+ isnt a great player, but he isnt a drooling moron.

I think folding is the best choice here, you would have to be beating him here 25% of the time for you to even breakeven, I just cant see that happening.

I too find myself in this situation over and over again, I think breaking it down to a percentage like this makes it a little easier for me to drop my hand or keep rolling with it.

(I arrive at 25% by, there is 7.25BB in the pot at the turn decision, if Hero calls down, he will be putting in 2BB to win 8.25BB, is my 25% correct?)
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-24-2005, 05:37 AM
ackid ackid is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Heads up, at the Trop..
Posts: 87
Default Re: Turn Decision

I 3-bet and fold to a cap.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-24-2005, 12:29 PM
mterry mterry is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1
Default Re: Turn Decision

I just reread sklansky's TOP "defense of semi-bluff" and it seems he would agree with 3bet/fold lines in this situation. He mentions that just calling is terrible umless the pot is big or you have outs.

ackid, would you take a line like this if the diamond draw had not just started?

also, for this hand most of hero's stats are probably multiway post-flop. since the hand is heads up, this should reduce the confidence we have in the postflop stats.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-24-2005, 12:50 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 96
Default Re: Turn Decision

[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet and fold to a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is AWFUL!

We have 8 outs against two pair!!!!! Folding is totally out of the question on this turn.

That's why three-betting and folding to a cap is bad.

We could consider: three-betting, calling a cap, and folding the river unimproved, but we can get to showdown more efficiently by just calling the raise and calling the river.

For me this is a standard call-down. Folding is quite bad, because we have outs and often this will be a bluff or something like that. If checked to on the river I'm betting, and will consider folding to another check-raise unimproved.

I need a pretty strong read to either three-bet the turn for value or to fold on this turn (that would have to be VERY strong... like I KNEW my opponent had a set). Calling down is what I'll do in like 90% of situations.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 12-24-2005, 03:52 PM
ackid ackid is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Heads up, at the Trop..
Posts: 87
Default Re: Turn Decision

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet and fold to a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is AWFUL!

We have 8 outs against two pair!!!!! Folding is totally out of the question on this turn.

That's why three-betting and folding to a cap is bad.

We could consider: three-betting, calling a cap, and folding the river unimproved, but we can get to showdown more efficiently by just calling the raise and calling the river.

For me this is a standard call-down. Folding is quite bad, because we have outs and often this will be a bluff or something like that. If checked to on the river I'm betting, and will consider folding to another check-raise unimproved.

I need a pretty strong read to either three-bet the turn for value or to fold on this turn (that would have to be VERY strong... like I KNEW my opponent had a set). Calling down is what I'll do in like 90% of situations.

[/ QUOTE ]


Hey Deranged,

I do agree that folding the turn to a c/r is not the best line most of the time with kings. This is because with hidden outs we have 8 clean outs to win.

But... Lets consider the situation here. You have a opener whos not a maniac or overly aggro. With a board of 4,10,2,6 with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s. What two pair could he be raising 10/6's or 4/6's thats seems unlikely. He could be raising on a flush draw, I wonder what his turn agg. stats are? I think 44/22/66 are the most likely candidates.

Like I said before Im probably not going to do this often but in this case I dont my line as awful. Plus the pot is still small so if we do happen to fold the best hand its not a catastrophe. I guess a case could be made for getting to sd cheaply by calling down if really need to see his trips on the end.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:38 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.