How many good players will end up failing?

sweetjazz · #1 10-14-2005, 02:06 AM

Reading bk's "admitting defeat" thread and the "how did you get here?" thread, I started thinking:

How many players here who read 2+2, think about strategy and are currently winning players (say capable of making 1 BB/100 at a mid stakes online game like 15/30) will end up busting out for the usual reasons (playing with too small of a BR, moving up to a limit they can't beat or can't withstand the swings, tilting away too much money after a bad stretch, a horribly bad run of cards, some combo of all of the above, etc.)?

It was surprising to see how many players experienced good fortune at a point in their poker careers when (1) their BR was dangerously low and (2) their good results were not commenserate with their skill level at the time. Given how frequently this happens, it's scary to think that the oppositie could occur. Players who have decent BRs but not huge ones could run really bad to a point where they hit a downward spiral they can't get out of. I really hope that won't happen, but I wonder how many people take seriously that there is always a possibility for catastrophically bad results over a long period of time, especially in high limit games where the edges pushed are much smaller. And the likelihood that the games will continue to get easier in the long-term is slim; as times passes, there will reach a point where people are busting out of games faster than new players are coming into them. The edge for winning players will shrink and some marginal winners will become break-even or losing players.

This has all been said before, so I don't know why I bothered to babble this all over again....oh well...

#2 10-14-2005, 02:18 AM

Very few if they don't tilt. I forget malmouth's number but it is like 2 standard deviations from the mean to loose your BR if you have 300 big bets and make 2 bets an hour.

Dave Mac · #3 10-14-2005, 02:23 AM

wriziziziziiiiiizzzzzzzzong.

Dave Mac · #4 10-14-2005, 02:23 AM

or at least irrelevent.

elmo · #5 10-14-2005, 02:51 AM

If a player is a winning player, and has taken several shots, one of their shots will be successful. Thats the good thing about shots... it only needs to work once, if you exercise proper BR management after you find success at the highest level you've played

James282 · #6 10-14-2005, 02:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If a player is a winning player, and has taken several shots, one of their shots will be successful. Thats the good thing about shots... it only needs to work once, if you exercise proper BR management after you find success at the highest level you've played

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey elmo, it was with this philosophy that I built my BR. I totally agree with it.
-James

CardSharpCook · #7 10-14-2005, 03:01 AM

It is not about falling, it is knowing how to break the fall and how to get up again.

baronzeus · #8 10-14-2005, 03:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If a player is a winning player, and has taken several shots, one of their shots will be successful. Thats the good thing about shots... it only needs to work once, if you exercise proper BR management after you find success at the highest level you've played

[/ QUOTE ]

yup. so far ive had two failed shots at 50/100. maybe the third will go better.

obi---one · #9 10-14-2005, 03:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It is not about falling, it is knowing how to break the fall and how to get up again.

[/ QUOTE ]

#10 10-14-2005, 04:09 AM

hey guys,

i've been a lurker here for a while, first post. I play on the party network under the names Bluffman997, Bluffman887 and Bluffman85, Bluffman86. I play mostly 15-30, $200 SNGs and occasionally 30-60.

I think you bring up a good point about good players failing. A few times my BR was just stuck at 5K and I couldn't seem to go anywhere and was seriously considering quitting. It took me a couple of shots before I was finally able to beat 15-30 consistently and have a sufficient BR to never go broke at this level.

My main concern is this, poker is a zero sum game. Nothing is created, for every winner, there must be a loser. How long can online poker be sustainable? Ie, when people stop signing up and depositing money, are we all just going to get slowly raked to death?

Also, in terms of high limit poker (300-600 and up), is it safe to assume everyone playing there is at an equal skill level? If we assume that, who are the winners and who are the losers? Is it jsut a matter of who's running hotter? At the 4K-8K "Big Game" in Bellagio where the big names play, who's winning and who's losing?