Wait for the turn for more equity or not?

Pacific 2/4 10 handed

Hero SB Qh Jd

UTG calls, utg+2 (loose preflop, can bluff after) calls, mp1 calls, co calls, butt calls, hero calls, BB checks

7 players (7 sb) flop 3s 9s Js

utg + 2 bets, co calls, hero??

[mdob]

Meh, seems like a bad time to me. With at least 2 people (and probably more) calling, there's a very good chance you won't be bet into again.

[W. Deranged]

I'm confused by the order of the flop action. Did hero already check? Who has already folded?

These are all very important things.

Sorry, I didn't include any of the checks or folds (thought I could shorten my work that way as it would be assumed and would be easier to read, I saw it in a book that way) Here it is with all the checks and folds:

Pacific 2/4 10 handed

Hero SB Qh Jd

UTG calls, utg+2 (loose preflop, can bluff after) calls, utg+3 folds, mp1 calls, mp2 folds, mp3 folds, co calls, butt calls, hero calls, BB checks

7 players (7 sb) flop 3s 9s Js

hero checks, BB checks, utg checks, utg + 2 bets, mp1 folds, co calls, button folds, hero??

Mbob, thanks for the reply. But, are you saying to raise here?

This is dangerous flop for me given the size of the field. I could be up against a flush already. 1/3rd of the time a very likely flush draw will fill up. There are also possible straight draws on this hand. And my kicker isn't great, I could be outkicked or up against two pair or a set. Any spade and any card 7 or higher (other than the two remaining Jacks could be bad for me). I don't know if this is being to paranoid, but against such a large field I think it's warranted.

I'm torn here between 1) folding, 2) calling to the river if no scare cards come and I don't face any heavy action, and 3) calling the flop & if I get a safe card on the turn, bet out.

Folding vs. calling down I believe comes down to my estimate that I'll have the winning hand at showdown vs the expected odds. I think the expected odds are around 4-1 in this hand. So I need to think I have the best hand at the showdown at least 20% of the time. Not sure that's the case.

Waiting for a safe card on the turn and betting out doesn't seem bad. But what if I'm raised by an opponent that I have seen bluff? And what about the others who may be slow playing a big hand. Betting out on the turn will be me in a difficult spot if I'm raised.

I really don't know on this hand, comments are appreciated.

[W. Deranged]

Calls. Check-raising here will do absolutely nothing except build the pot, and your equity edge is not all that great here, so that's not necessarily the best idea. Your equity will be much more clearly defined on the turn, so I think waiting until the turn is better.

The question is, do you plan on leading out the turn or check-raising the turn. Allowing the turn to get checked through is pretty horrible. Since the pot is pretty small, a single turn bet will be pretty big proportionally (a double bet would be nicer, but I don't think the risk of a check-through is worth it). So I'd simply plan on leading any non-club turn, and check-folding a non-club turn.

If you get raised on the turn, you probably need to let your hand go. UTG+2 can bluff, but a raise against a turn donk-bet on the three-suited board is not all that likely to be a bluff. You have a marginally good hand here with TP3K, but you could well be against a made flush or better J already and drawing extremely thin. The pot is small so getting out earlier is better.

[W. Deranged]

Check-calling the turn here would be quite bad. If you are going to play this hand, you need to get aggressive with it and try to extract as much value as you can from it in the situations you are likely to have the most equity. Checking the turn and allowing it to check through is a disaster.

Folding the flop is way too weak in my opinion.

So your #3 is what I have come to. Check-raising the turn is not good because the bet is likely to come from your left anyway.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Calls. Check-raising here will do absolutely nothing except build the pot, and your equity edge is not all that great here

[/ QUOTE ]
Yucky!

You have a pretty good situation here to check/raise the flop. The bet came from relatively late position and you've got a great chance to eliminate 40% of the remaining players. Check-raising has good potential to drive out the BB and UTG which increases Hero's chances of winning the pot. His equity edge, however big or small it might be, is unquestionably favorable. That, in isolation of other factors, is enough to justify a bet, raise or checkraise. Checking and calling here is simply not extracting value from the hand and allowing other players with weak draws better odds to continue.

Straight/Flush draws are going to call regardless. The best Hero can do is hope that they miss and make them pay for trying. Hero check-calling the flop does not keep the pot size to such a minimum where it would be incorrect for these hands to call a donk-bet on the turn. The pot on the turn is going to be 5BBs which is giving good odds for many hands to call (and many hands that shouldn't call but will anyways at the 2/4 level). If Hero check/calls the flop and allows BB/UTG to continue cheap this, IMO, makes trying to checkraise the turn even more horrible (it's much worse now for Hero if the turn gets checked through).

Check/raise the flop. Lead the turn.

[W. Deranged]

Crunchy,

As I look back, I think you're right. I didn't read the action closely enough, and thought that there weren't any players between hero and the flop bettor.

Given that there are players in between hero and the flop bettor, I think a check-raise is definitely in order here to force out weak overcards. Leading the turn will then be obvious.

My analysis still stands if there are not those two players between hero and the bettor. If the bet comes from the immediate left of hero I think check-calling the flop and leading the turn may well be better from a pot-manipulation point of view, in that certain overcard hands will not be getting the odds to continue drawing on the turn if the pot is smaller, and you will have a clearer idea of your equity on the turn.

FWIW, I think that leading the flop here is not particularly good, because it means that any hope you have of protecting your hand on the flop would probably have to come from a three-bet. I think this involves too large an investment given the strength of the hand. A flop check-raise does seem right in retrospect, though.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
Check/raise the flop. Lead the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is probably my favorite line as well. We've got a small equity advantage over everyone, so every bet that goes into this pot is profitable. We will lose if a spade comes, so 34% of the time we're drawing dead (there's a 1% chance the spade is a queen and the next card is a queen or a jack). Beyond that, we're probably winning most of the time if a spade doesn't fall. That puts our equity right around 50% against what will probably be 3 opponents.

On top of that, with the small pot size this is the best chance to scare a naked spade away. Anyone holding the 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] might be considering taking a look at a turn card that could beat us, but raising here might move them off it.