Bubble Play

Texas Pete · #1 09-08-2004, 11:41 PM

This thread is about bubble play. If you have an interesting situation post it. Then, you get to hear all the poker geniuses talk about stuff you never thought about.

Texas Pete · #2 09-08-2004, 11:47 PM

Ok, here's one for starters from today.
Button seems to be a good player.
He hasn't been in too many hands, has raised appropriately, and as you can see by his stack doing really well.
His min raise to me says, "well, I have something decent i'd kinda like to play, but I don't wanna commit if SB raises" or it's just a blind steal.

Blinds are 150/300 at this point, so not neccesary for me to push here, but I figured I'd have a decent chance of him folding plus a decent chance to win if not.

Party Poker $30 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero (t1000)
UTG (t2620)
Button (t2285)
SB (t2095)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Button raises to t600, SB folds, Hero raises to t1000 (All-In), Button calls t400.

Flop: (t2150) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2150) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2150) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t2150
Main Pot: t2150 (t2150), between Hero and Button.

Bigwig · #3 09-08-2004, 11:55 PM

I don't like the play. The blinds are big, yes, but they're big for everyone. You have a good chance of getting in the money without getting crazy here.

Plus, what makes you think he will fold? He's getting more than 4:1 on his money. If he has a small pair, and puts you on an overpair (which is unlikely) he still might call!

I'm never folding preflop when I'm getting 4:1 on my money and my opponent is all-in. Ever.

SmileyEH · #4 09-09-2004, 12:09 AM

dreadful

Texas Pete · #5 09-09-2004, 01:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
dreadful

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, I lost. He had 88.

SmileyEH · #6 09-09-2004, 01:22 AM

its not dreadful because you lost its becuase you went all in with a random hand against a preflop raiser with zero fold equity. I dont care if he had 27o, its still bad.

sorry, but the results are really irrelevant in this case.

-SmileyEH

Texas Pete · #7 09-09-2004, 01:25 AM

thanks for the lesson

eastbay · #8 09-09-2004, 03:07 AM

He's not going to fold unless he's a complete idiot.

eastbay

Jason Strasser · #9 09-09-2004, 04:49 AM

What am I missing? I think everyone who has posted so far has not really thought everything out. This does not seem like an easy answer to me.

Of course the hero is not trying to get the opponent to fold. Sure, he has zero folding equity, but look at the math. Assuming the opponent will call, which he will 100% of the time, and assuming the SB folds, you risk 700 to win 1450. Giving you slightly better than 2:1. Combined with the fact that the hero is very low, and desperately needs to double through, I don't see at all what is wrong with getting your money in here. If he folds, he has 700, and now he is in the SB. If he folds now he has 550. Your opponent doesn't need aces to min raise here, I bet that is a very common play with a hand like Ax, Kx, low pairs, etc. at this level.

In fact, now that I've read through all my reasoning, I'm going to say that I really think a push is in order here. You will not be far from 50/50, and even if you are a 60/40 dog, which I bet you would be better than if you looked at this spot in the long run, this is clearly +EV (CEV AND $EV).

-Jason

EDIT: Ignore my comment about the SB, of course he folds.

mackthefork · #10 09-09-2004, 05:29 AM

I see no one paying attention to the stack sizes, I would get the money in here after the other guy has helped to isolate you, you only have 700 left, the only hands you don't want him to have are AA KK QQ JJ TT or any hand with a J or T in it plus an over card. Easy push.

Regards Mack