Curtains: flop decision

[jb9]

I like the $400 bet here for a few reasons. Maybe some of these are stupid, but since so many like the idea of checking, I thought I'd mention them...

Some big stacks get loose with defending their blinds, so I wouldn't be too concerned about his preflop call. I think it is likely that I have the best hand and would bet for value.

I bet to show I wasn't "stealing" preflop.

I bet to show I'm not afraid of playing a hand with the big stack.

I have a ton of outs if he calls.

A bet here might get me a free card on the turn (if I want it).

I can (and probably will) fold if he check/raises all in. I will still have the 2nd biggest stack by a large margin.

If I check behind, I'm inviting him to bluff me out of the pot on the turn (would anyone who checks the flop call a pot size bet on a turn that is a blank?).

If I check and a club or Ace hits the turn, I'm not likely to get paid off unless he has a flush or weaker Ace.

A read on villain would of course help.

[curtains]

those who mentioned a read on the villian: my default read on an opponent with a name in all caps followed by a number, whom also has a very large stack early in a tournament, is that they are probably a bad player.

[microbet]

I was gonna answer, but got waylaid and Curtains did a 10x better job than I could have.

I'm so happy having this big stack at this point there's no way I'm putting in all my chips, having to pray for a club. I'd much rather make semi-bluffs at this stage against one of the other stacks, and it's not like the free card has no value. You certainly have a better draw.

[async]

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micro,

What is wrong with a push here? With 600 already in the middle I'd say it's +EV.

I'm not saying it's the best option....but those chips have significant value already even before any more get in there. I do rather like the idea of letting the villian stab at it and then raising allin, however. And if you get a free card, that also seems pretty good.

Yugoslav

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Not that you were asking me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] But I was trying to decide the best path for this. I figure if we push, we win 600 about 85% of the time. That's a value of T510. When we're called, we're either a 44% dog about 70% of the time (overpair, or even AK), or we're a 26% dog about 30% of the time (set). Our EV for that 15% of the time is -300, even counting the chips in the middle. So maybe pushing is worth T210, and when they call and we lose, we're out.

Compare that to a check. It's "risk free" for now, we have 18% chance to make the nuts, so a check is +T108, even we assume we must fold if we miss and they will never pay anything off. And we may make an Ace and win with that, too. And even if the turn is a blank, opp may check again.

I think a push is slightly +EV, but it's also hugely +variance and it is quite possibly not the most +EV when you consider a payoff from a good hand if we make our clubs.

[The Yugoslavian]

curtains,

I like your line....I agree getting called on the flop isn't a good thing but I don't think we are too often. Anyway, I definitely like a check/raise or just seein' that turn.

micro,
Yeah, my point is simply that going allin on the flop is +EV IMO....and has to be better than the way I see many party players playing, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. Fwiw I'd check the flop and take a line similar to curtains' although in teh $33s I'm not sure I can pull the trigger on a big river bet when I get called down with 2nd best (in this case 1st best) crap all the time.

Yugoslav

[ravensfan]

JB: I agree that you want to take down the pots and project the image. But imo, in this case I think the specifics, and position, make checking worthwhile.

I think though that a flush on turn will still get bet to you a fair amount of times since there's little reason for villian to put you on a flush draw and they may even make a probe bet to determine your strength. I mean, you've already shown weakness in this hand so they might take a stab at the pot if any Ace doesn't come (they might have you on high A considering pf action). If you call or reraise/ on turned flush (or 10) you should get some more chips a fair amount of time. Implied odds should be large here i think, which is why i'm comfortable checking.

Also, if you bet the pot and then fold to a reraise all-in, isn't it a large -EV situation? I think i'd have to reluctantly call, which is why I'd hate to allow the situation to occur.

I think all three options are likely +EV, but the largest EV is checking since it definitely doesn't involve a race for your flush.

[curtains]

Yugo Im last to act on the flop and my opponent has already checked.

[The Yugoslavian]

curtains,

You forgot to add that i'm retarded, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

My only excuse is that I'm sick and very sleep deprived. Okay, I will stop posting even though it takes my mind off of feeling not well. If I can't even read the HHs correctly I'm not doin' anyone any good, lol.

Yugoslav

[Chaostracize]

I bet 450 here.

[rvg72]

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I figure if we push, we win 600 about 85% of the time.

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For what it's worth, I think we have a much greater than 15% chance to be called here. I'd say there is at least a 30% chance he has 10's or higher or possibly a set and he would call here with that almost every time (say 80%). The other 70% he has a pretty good holding but would only call say 20% of the time.

30 x 80% + 70 x 20% = 38%

If those assumptions are correct then it is more like a 35 to 40% chance of getting called here. If this was a $22 or a $33 then it is a completely different story but in a higher limit game this smells like a trap.

rvg