Check, bluff or value bet this river?

[Barry]

Sorry, been down at FW's for the weekend. It's been mad but some great games.

I thought about c/r the flop but didn't. At the time, I knew that the CO would check behind w/o a K on the turn and 3 bet the flop w/ a K if I c/r. So I figured that I could get the same information for 1 bet rather than 2. Of course the problem with that logic is that there are a lot of cards that could come on the turn or river to beat me, so it's best to get them to fold now. I should have c/r'd the flop.

[sfer]

You check, maniac bets, other guy folds, and you have two options, neither involves folding, but the choice revolves around maniac's suspicion and stuckness...

I can't see a better hand calling you here on the river. I think you have to check to induce a bluff. This would be a great pot to bluff at it but you probably have the best hand. Now, what hands call you here? Will the maniac call with a pair of 2s or 3s? If he will, then you have to think would he check call and then check the turn with a pair of 3s. I think this is your only way to win an extra bet and it seems far fetched. By not check-raising the flop, he can't put you on a king if he respects your play. I think his check on the turn meant he gave up on the hand but it could mean a medium pair. Therefore, the only way you make money by betting is if the LAG calls. I can't see the CO calling with a worse hand. Therefore, I think the check-call is the best play to maybe induce a bluff from the LAG or button.

This is a mandatory check-raise on the flop in the future, you have second pair against an oppoenent who could be betting any two cards here. Isolate yourself with him because you'll have the best hand more times then not (LAG prob woulda bet the king on flop).

[Dagger78]

Do you know what the decent player would do with a mid PP on th turn? Would he check the turn with QQ-77? And if this is the case would he fold them to a river bet?

That would be the best reason to bet the river, otherwise C/C.

The button would have to be really weak tight to fold a hand like QQ-77 after seeing a second king and no aggressive action throughout the whole hand. This could easily be a hand he folds if we check raise the flop and continue to bet the hand to the river.

[DMBFan23]

couldn't that put us in the tough spot of having to overcall, especially if the CO knows we would be less inclined to? conversely he doesn't want to overcall, so why not get him to maybe fold a winner?