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  #11  
Old 10-21-2005, 03:15 PM
M2d M2d is offline
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Default Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.

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On the turn, if Tom is the white guy, let me tell you this - you are in an interesting spot. You are either toast or he's trying to buy the pot. I would call him down. He very likely could have a hand like AJ here, or he hit a set and was waiting for somebody to bet it. However, he does like to raise here, since he knows that people steal from up front in spots like you are in right here.

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tom, the pro from (I think) berkeley? glasses?
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  #12  
Old 10-21-2005, 03:58 PM
Subfallen Subfallen is offline
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Default Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.

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[ QUOTE ]
Isn't calling the turn wrong if you intend to fold the river unimproved...

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No.

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Lol, I knew that "No" was a possible answer, that's why I asked...thx for the info anyways. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] Guess I'll have to think it through myself.

Looking about the numbers, he only needs to be bluffing the turn about 5% of the time for that single call to be correct (we're getting 6:1 with a gutshot that comes in ~9% of the time.)

Given that our turn bet looks kind of vulnerable, and the pot is laying him 2:1 on a bluff, he probably is bluffing more than 5%. Especially since he may not put you an A and think that he's really semi-bluffing a 6 out draw with his Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something.

But the question is, "How often will he fire the second barrel on the river?" Almost never if he has a pair (66, 87s, even 88 are possible), or improves to a pair, of course...which happens 13% of the time he was pure-bluffing the turn.

So say he continues betting a worse hand on the river like 60% of the time. We're getting 8:1 on the river, so we need to be good 11% of the time. That would mean he would need to be bluffing the turn 19% of the time...

Yeah, I agree, call the turn, fold the river.
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  #13  
Old 10-21-2005, 04:00 PM
baronzeus baronzeus is offline
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Default Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.

betting this flop would save you some grief. i would call the river just because you checked the flop.
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  #14  
Old 10-21-2005, 04:04 PM
J.A.Sucker J.A.Sucker is offline
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Default Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.

Yep. Very nice guy - one of my favorite conversations in the cardrooms, BTW.
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  #15  
Old 10-21-2005, 04:07 PM
haakee haakee is offline
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Default Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.

I routinely throw this away preflop. I believe the majority of posters here will call preflop. It probably matters very little EV-wise, but you won't have to expend brain power playing a weak ace out of position. I'm more inclined to play a weak ace here when there are fewer players in the pot.

I'd call the turn raise because the combined chance that you may be ahead + the likelihood of having 7 clean outs if you're behind seems big enough to call. I'd also call the river bet and expect to lose.

As J.A. has alluded to, Tom is usually raising or folding an ace when he comes in from EP.
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  #16  
Old 10-21-2005, 04:08 PM
J.A.Sucker J.A.Sucker is offline
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Default Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.

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So you would actually consider mucking this preflop?

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I wouldn't even consider it - my left hand would have already flicked it into the muck.

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I had been playing fairly tight up to that point, small pot, plus like 3 people to act behind him....I just didn't think he'd pick that spot to bluff.

Although, it's kind of odd that he'd check the flop if he held AJ...

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At high limits, thinking players do all kinds of things. The reasoning you state above is exactly why he would make this play. He knows this, the pot is small, and bluffers expect to steal this from up front without a play back. His raise here is great - you probably muck 2nd pair. Hell, you are thinking about mucking an A. Tom is definately capable of, and doing, these things. Him checking with AJ is possible too, depending on who's got the button.
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  #17  
Old 10-21-2005, 04:17 PM
astroglide astroglide is offline
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Default Re: A5o, another Bay101 hand.

once i was there i'd check the turn too. if there's a bet and a call that's an easy fold. you could get a bluff. if somebody has a flush draw they'll bet it anyway, and you get the added value of them often betting it unimproved on the river. if you bet and they raise you with it, you get put in this unfortunate position. if it checks through you can bet the river and get a suspicious bad call (especially if some paint arrives). you've still got your gutshot too.

with that many limpers i would fold preflop, but i would call preflop and still play the hand as i stated above if there were less people involved (1-2 limpers).
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