Overbets on the river by average 100/200 players

[beeyjay]

Alright I know this is general as balls but I think it is fairly interesting anyway. Say the opponent is an averageish player at the 100 or 200 nl 6max levels. You raise it preflop with position, continuation bet the flop they call, check check on the turn, they bet pot or just over pot on the river.

What do you think the % of the time this is a bluff vs the % of the time this is a steal attempt is. If its a bluff/semibluff how often do you think a push on your part assuming its raising it at least 4 times their bet induces a fold.

I have primarily been a sng player and have been playing a lot more 6 max the past week or so. After about 30,000 hands I feel like if the conditions are right I usually tended to push in this situation but am really rethinking that and generally leaning towards folding in this situation as more and more I'm finding these bets to be value driven albeit somewhat senselessly in my mind. Like i said though my sample size is pretty small and am wondering what those of you that have more experience think about in these situations

How does your thinking change if say there are draws and such that either get there or dont versus a far more blank board? Like I said this whole discussion is fairly vague and I'm on the lookout for hands like this to post but just thought this might get some sort of discussion going as it seems like a fairly important concept.

[GoCubsGo]

I think you're right. Usually the massive overbets on the river are people with the nuts that are too lazy to come up with a valid betting strategy, so they just raise it huge and hope the other person thinks they are bluffing. Very rarely are these overbets actually bluffs.

[DeepFryer]

I just want to point out that, on the river, a raise doesn't make much sense if you think your opponent might be bluffing. If he actually is bluffing, he's just going to fold, so you're not going to win any more money. And if he's not bluffing, you're losing a ton of money by raising him. So calling seems much better in these situations.

And there's no such thing as a semi-bluff on the river.