Abdul`s sucking out essay.

[Zim]

Hey,

Been trying to work on my post flop play and came across this article by Abdul Jalib:

http://www.posev.com/poker/holdem/st...uts-abdul.html

Now, I play NL ... but I figure it could be helpful.

One question I have, however, is the first section titled:

"Betting or raising for immediate profit."

In it, he writes that with one caller, you will win more than your fair share of the time if you have more than ...

23 outs.

Yet with 8 callers, you only need more than 5 1/8 outs.

This seems counter-intuitive. But then again, my intuition may well be lacking.

Any help with this would be greatly appreciated.

Best,
Zim

[Cerril]

It's a matter of equity - the odds you're getting paid.

To make even money on a dice roll (heads up) you need to win on three numbers. But if you're getting paid five to one, you only need to win on one number. Same principle. Of course, what it takes to have the best hand against five other people is a lot tougher (remember, when you've got the best hand at the moment, your 'outs' are actually his/their blanks).

But the reason you need fewer outs is because you're getting paid far more for each unit you risk.

[GuyOnTilt]

In it, he writes that with one caller, you will win more than your fair share of the time if you have more than ...

23 outs.

Yet with 8 callers, you only need more than 5 1/8 outs.

If that's really what he wrote, he made a mistake. It should be more than 5 1/8 outs for 7 opponents.

It sounds like his numbers are for turn play and he's just stating simple division. 46 unseen cards / number of opponents plus you = outs needed to be getting proper odds on your raise.

GoT

[Zim]

Appreciated.

I rather liked his little formula to determine whether to chase or not:


If Outs x [(big bets + n) +1] > 46 then call.

(n is the additional number of big bets you can make if you get your hand)

Any problem using this in NL?

Thanks again,
Z.

[Louie Landale]

So you hit your hand 20% of the time and expect 4 callers if you bet. 20% you win an extra 4; 80% you lose an extra 1. Add that up and you get zero extra, the same amount you get if you check.

Its just risk-reward ratios: amount you win times chance you win minus amount you lose times chance you lose.

This reality makes betting flush draws into multiple opponents on the flop SO VERY profitable.

- Louie

[The Goober]

[ QUOTE ]
Appreciated.

I rather liked his little formula to determine whether to chase or not:


If Outs x [(big bets + n) +1] > 46 then call.

(n is the additional number of big bets you can make if you get your hand)

Any problem using this in NL?

Thanks again,
Z.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem in NL is that at any point anyone with a sufficiently large stack can ruin your odds. You could bet your flush draw, get 5 callers (meaning that you are getting good value on your money), and then the 6th guy could bet the pot and ruin your drawing odds - now you are geting 2-1 on a 4-1 shot and have to fold. In limit, it usually takes a raise and a re-raise to ruin your odds (and sometimes that not even enough).