NHL thought / bet for tonight

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Yeah, personally I don't see the Kings beating the Flames. The Flames will be upset over the loss to the Oil and will be ready for this one. At home with Kipper in goal...I'd take the Flames.

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Last moment injury update: Conroy out for the kings.
BUT, Suave is in net for Cal.

don't know where that "suave in net" came from. got it from a formerly reliable source.
kings were without conroy, belanger, roenick, and miller (after the 1st period).
bad news for calgary.

[craig r]

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Thanks for the replies all. I think I'm going to make a small bet just to "test" my theory out. It's known, but only in local chicago papers on the 5th page of the sports section (blackhawks are maybe the 5th most popular sports team in chicago).

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I am not being a jerk, but I am curious how this is really a way to "test" your theory? With teams this evenly matched (according to the line) the outcome is very close to 50/50. So, even if CHI wins, that doesn't mean you were right and even if they lose, it doesn't mean you were wrong. A sample size of 1 is rarely adequate to know if your theory was correct. Now, if you place this same type of wager over 100-300 games, then you might have a better idea.

craig

[gomberg]

Right - i didn't mean to imply I was testing... I'm just placing a bet / gambling with what I think is a small edge. I do keep all my bets and reasons in a database - so in a couple years when I have some sample size on this, I'll let you know the results [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I've only been betting on sports for about 6 months now, and it's been interesting so far. Poker is way more lucrative for me but I like the work and research that goes into sports betting so it's a fun side hobby.

As for my results thus far, I've been pretty down on just handicapping games, but WAY up on futures bets and divisional champion, series champion bets. The future bets play to my strength of analyzing situations and seeing the public bias on certain teams (baseball playoffs were way off this year).

Anyway, as far back as I can remember with the hawks, whenever the captain or coach has an outburst with young players, they play better for a couple weeks. Then when they suck again and get yelled at again, the effect is usually minimized. Since this is the first time something like this has happened this year for a very young team, I'm banking on them playing better than usual tonight and maybe for a couple more games.

[gomberg]

Oh well - looks like the hawks bet sucked.... if only the owners would play the home games on TV, I'd be able to at least watch my money go away [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

considering aucoin hasn't played in a week, I'm not sure it carries as much weight. and that he's -4 with 1 goal and 5 assists.