Review - Hand 57 - JJ river value bet

tyler_cracker · #1 09-02-2005, 08:41 PM

Hand 57:
PreFlop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10 Players)
4 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 calls

Flop: (4.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP3 folds

Turn: (5.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets, BB calls

River: (7.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets, BB calls

I'm curious about this value bet. Did you have a read? BB could easily be calling down with Kx or a 9 (which hit trips on the river). Busted draws aren't calling. What did you put him on?

bottomset · #2 09-02-2005, 08:58 PM

perhaps TT, 88, 7x, 6x .. Ahigh

really hard to tell if this is good without knowing anything about the villian, I'm guessing its probably ok

istewart · #3 09-02-2005, 09:02 PM

IMO this depends on the read, especially given that two draws missed and middle pair just got there. I bet this on a lot of river cards, unless this guy never goes to showdown, but this seems like a bad one to do it on.

DCWildcat · #4 09-02-2005, 09:15 PM

Doesn't really matter. This is an easy vaue bet against most anyone.

Delzek15 · #5 09-02-2005, 09:21 PM

Like you said I don't see him calling you with anything less than what you have. I would check here on the river.

#6 09-02-2005, 09:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious about this value bet. Did you have a read? BB could easily be calling down with Kx or a 9 (which hit trips on the river). Busted draws aren't calling. What did you put him on?

[/ QUOTE ]
I can't say about a read at the time. PT stats now have villain as LP-P 74/2/0.4 through 60 hands. That's a ton of hands played. I'm not sure which will call here.

bottomset · #7 09-02-2005, 09:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious about this value bet. Did you have a read? BB could easily be calling down with Kx or a 9 (which hit trips on the river). Busted draws aren't calling. What did you put him on?

[/ QUOTE ]
I can't say about a read at the time. PT stats now have villain as LP-P 74/2/0.4 through 60 hands. That's a ton of hands played. I'm not sure which will call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's calling with the hands I listed + 55-22 easy river bet with that info, hindsight blah blah

Shillx · #8 09-02-2005, 10:05 PM

I need to do some math on this type of spot since it is so common/tricky. This one is really a bitch because there is a good chance that he holds a king. I'm inclined to check and call in this paticular hand though I like betting better in general. If the final board were K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])(8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) I would bet.

Brad

WildDan · #9 09-03-2005, 12:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I need to do some math on this type of spot since it is so common/tricky. This one is really a bitch because there is a good chance that he holds a king. I'm inclined to check and call in this paticular hand though I like betting better in general. If the final board were K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])(8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) I would bet.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

So would I, but I also value bet the original hand. I'm curious as to why you feel the texture of the second hand is better than the original to bet? The lower value of the cards alone?

tyler_cracker · #10 09-03-2005, 04:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I need to do some math on this type of spot since it is so common/tricky. This one is really a bitch because there is a good chance that he holds a king.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would love to see some math, but i think it's tricky, because BB could really have anything here. It's hard to glean information from a blind that just calls all the way through the hand on a drawy board. How do you pick a range to put BB on to start crunching numbers? And why do you think there's a particularly good chance that he holds a K?

Edit: i have no pokerstove, and i don't know how to get twodimes.net to crunch a range (can it, even?). Here's part of this hand, though, if someone else can figure it out:

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=kc+...d=&h=js+jc