Hand vs 2+2er, Put the 3rd Raise in on a Bluff?

Double Eagle · #1 07-31-2005, 01:10 PM

This is a hand from last night's Stars 11r. Hand in question comes with about 50 left, avg is about 100k, I stand 10th or so. My image up to this point should be pretty rockish as the maniacal stack two to my left has limited my opening opportunities. The last hand I played I opened from the button with AQ, was called by the maniac in the BB and was forced to make a big call on a TT8 board when he fired out on the flop, pretty much putting me in.

The villain in this hand is a well respected MTTer who has been active opening pots, but who I have not seen call a raise yet in the space of 3 or 4 orbits. He has not yet shown down a hand. When he raises my continuation bet, I sense that he is raising just enough to knock me off my hand, and probably has a low/medium pocket that he thinks might be good but is unsure of. Against an unknown I would muck here pretty quickly, but I think this opponent may not be as pot committed as it appears and may fold if I push. Who here makes that play?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (8 handed) converter

UTG (t8040)
UTG+1 (t47195)
MP1 (t68292)
Hero (t153666)
CO (t296983)
Button (t119147)
SB (t138704)
BB (t106777)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t12000, 2 folds, SB calls t10000, 1 fold.

Flop: (t23400) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t18000, SB raises to t52000, Hero ????

sirio11 · #2 07-31-2005, 02:06 PM

I think is a very risky play. He has almost half his stack in play, most probably he has a medium pair. If you think, he's the kind of player that folds in this spot, this is a great play. Not sure if I make it. Another option is to check the flop, and then raise his turn bet, I think it accomplishes the same with less risk.

Double Eagle · #3 07-31-2005, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think is a very risky play. He has almost half his stack in play, most probably he has a medium pair. If you think, he's the kind of player that folds in this spot, this is a great play. Not sure if I make it. Another option is to check the flop, and then raise his turn bet, I think it accomplishes the same with less risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I don't think he would go out of his way to find a fold, he is definitely capable of folding if he thinks he is beat. Look at it from his perspective, a tightish player opens up from LMP, and then comes back over the top of a check raise on a flop that can't possibly have hit him. How good can he feel about his 88/66/44? Isn't the riskiness of this play part of its attraction?

sirio11 · #4 07-31-2005, 02:27 PM

What if he thinks, you have AKs,AQs, even KQs?

Double Eagle · #5 07-31-2005, 02:31 PM

That would be the only non-bluffing hand he can put me on where he would be correct to call. And of course he's still a dog in this case though getting a big overlay from the pot...

sirio11 · #6 07-31-2005, 02:45 PM

Or he could have the flush draw and he's calling for sure. If he has a middle pair, he hates to call, but if he includes AKs,AQs,KQs, he may do it, because of the odds. Of course when he's making a play at you, he's folding and you win a nice pot. Thats why I think the play in the turn is a little better.

Che · #7 07-31-2005, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Another option is to check the flop, and then raise his turn bet

[/ QUOTE ]

What if the "respected" 2+2er [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] checks again on the turn?

Double Eagle · #8 07-31-2005, 02:56 PM

I can't imagine not firing a continuation bet here as it's going to take the pot down immediately a good percentage of the time. It seems like waiting till the turn to raise is much more risky than firing the continuation bet immediately, no?

sirio11 · #9 07-31-2005, 03:05 PM

Then he has nothing or he has 5's full. He's not giving you one more free card if he has a pair. Of course, make sure your bet is big enough (without overbetting), so he does not have 2nd thoughts about why you're betting now. Or if you're more sophisticated, make a normal bet in the turn and if called be prepared to meke a larger bet in the river.

Che · #10 08-01-2005, 01:01 AM

I was the SB. I had 66.

Not sure if I would have called a push by DE or not. My initial reaction would certainly have been to fold, but I might have talked myself into a call given the 3:1 odds I would have been getting.

As for my thinking, this is one of those situations where I was out of position, but that actually made it easier for me to control the size of the pot if my opponent makes a normal continuation bet (as he should and did). Sadly, I didn’t realize that preflop (need to work on anticipating things a street or two in advance), but I did realize it as the flop was being dealt.

Basically, I have an opportunity to force my opponent to decide whether or not he wants to put his whole stack in without having to put my whole stack in. This is an important topic in NL: we need to be careful that we are the ones putting our opponents to the test and not the other way around.

Sometimes it is nearly impossible to avoid the wrong side, as it was for Double Eagle in this hand. Sirio suggested an alternative play, but I think DE’s approach should be used most of the time with Sirio’s option used only to mix things up or in special situations (just my opinion, feel free to disagree).

Other times, the bad situations could be avoided, but we walk into traps as my opponent did by check-minraising me on a paired flop in a hand I posted quite a while back (can’t find the thread, sorry…if anyone remembers it and can find it, please post a link) and as the OP did in this recent thread.

Similar considerations must be taken in hands like the AQo hand I just posted.

Back to the hand in question…

I can make this check-raise with a bluff (easy fold to push) or a strong hand (instacall). 66 is neither, though, but I like to make the same play just to mix things up.

My original intent with raising to 52K was to appear “borderline” pot-committed so that DE would not come over the top unless he was beating me. This would make my decision easier if he did come over the top. I would probably have raised less against an unknown or a known fish, but I try not to be too predictable so you never know.

Later,
Che