Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally) - Page 4

MLG · #31 08-01-2005, 11:41 PM

wreckless, definitely wreckless. I won a hand where I open raised from the button, the BB repopped me, and I thought he was restealing. He was shortish, so I pushed. HE called with AJ, and I had KJ. So, if he was paying attention, a big if, then he thinks im pretty damn aggresive.

Stipe_fan · #32 08-02-2005, 11:20 AM

Then I think you will most definitely get reraised. So, my question to you is what you are attempting to accomplish with the 120 bet? I said earlier that I agree with your 120 bet but you have to know that you will be reraised by anyone holding a decent hand since they think you are loose/aggressive. So, if they think you are loose, they might raise with an inferior hand. I don't think they put you on a great hand since you will raise with nothing.

Thus, I think there is no way he puts you on bottom two.

Such a simple game to learn but this hand shows us how complex it can get.

Stipe

SossMan · #33 08-02-2005, 12:37 PM

with your image, I think that you need to put in a large reraise there. Make it something like t1265. (i like even numbers)

MLG · #34 08-02-2005, 12:40 PM

how's that different from pushing?

SossMan · #35 08-02-2005, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
how's that different from pushing?

[/ QUOTE ]

t1265 = scary

MLG · #36 08-02-2005, 12:45 PM

if you had a straight or set would you ever make that bet? there are two clubs out there. this is all assuming that he's thinking enough to interpret scary v not scary, but not thinking so much that he realizes its exactly the same thing. meh, i think long run its not worth putting in these scary looking raises instead of just pushing.

SossMan · #37 08-02-2005, 12:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you had a straight or set would you ever make that bet? there are two clubs out there. this is all assuming that he's thinking enough to interpret scary v not scary, but not thinking so much that he realizes its exactly the same thing. meh, i think long run its not worth putting in these scary looking raises instead of just pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you are wrong, especially given the recent history (the KJ/AJ hand where you pushed). Against a lot of skill levels, sure, it won't make a difference if you push or make a smaller raise.
But against medium skilled players, you can sometimes get them to lay down hands with a smaller raise that they would call an all in with. You can exploit the "he looks like he wants a call" mentality.

Josh Arieh did this in the final table of the ME when he asked DW how much he had left. DW said like 800k, and Josh made it 500k to go.

As for your question...yes, that's the exact raise i would make w/ a straight or set on this board.

MLG · #38 08-02-2005, 12:56 PM

Making the small raise makes a flush draw's life so easy. he's right if he calls, he's right if he pushes, just as long as he doesn't fold. I understand what you're saying, but I've just never been convinced when I'm playing that the oh he made a small bet that's scary factor outweighs the oh if I call I'm out of the tournament factor.

fnord_too · #39 08-02-2005, 02:28 PM

Well, here's what I probably do:

I call and lead any turn for about 500, which leaves me with about 1900 and puts the pot at about 1900 if he calls.

What could this guy have? There are 4 hands that scare me:
99, QJ, 8T, KT (with KT being the least likey, and both straights probably being suited but not in clubs, QJ probably suited, too).

What other hands might raise here: AQ, KQ, AJ, AT, TT, AA/KK (whiffed pre flop limp reraise), A9s (not clubs) (unlikely but possible), 88 maybe.

I think it is much more likely that you are up against a one pair hand here, maybe with a straight draw like QTs, than anything else. Why would he be raising here with a flush draw? Lots of limpers who may tag along giving him excelent odds, and the possibility of someone behind him having a real hand and pushing him off his draw (while costing him another 10+% of his stack). It sure looks like villain has a vulnerable made hand, and there are not a whole lot of those that beat you.

If you lead for 500 on the turn, you put villain in a very awkward spot*: He can raise 1250 more, giving you ~2.5:1 on his call or he can call leaving the pot at 1900 with 1250 behind, or he can just go away.

I like this line over raising right now because some times he will have you beat right now and some of the times he does the turn will scare him and make him lay down a better hand. (e.g. he has say QJ and the turn comes T or a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] he is going to have a very tough decision.)

If he pushes the turn you may have a tough decision, but you will be getting 2.5:1 so you will probably have to call anything other than a K or 8.

*Awkward assuming he does not have a very strong hand!

sxz18 · #40 08-02-2005, 02:46 PM

I think a fold is in order here for a couple of reasons. It's hard to believe at the 3rd level (25/50 I believe?), EP will show a hand like AQ right here. I think it's very likely he has a hand like KT or T9c or QJ or maybe even a set. There's just not a lot of hands you can beat that would be raising here. With no reads, I would not think EP would semi-bluff raise with two more players to act behind him. It's hard to believe you're ahead as there are so many hands he could be raising with here where he either dominates you already (set or QJ or KT) or has a monster draw with T9c.