AKs...a bad flop fold?

pryor15 · #1 11-04-2005, 02:39 AM

the table's all of a sudden gotten pretty loose...

last hand i got caught trying to isolate a maniac's PF raise w/ TT (he had AA) and had to show it down, and i've been raising a lot lately, hence the PF passiveness.

hey look at that...the converter worked. cool.

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] , K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] .
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 raises, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG caps, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (19.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 raises, MP2 calls, Hero folds

my thinking here is i'm behind at least a Q, with a good likelyhood that i'm up against either AA/KK/AQ/QQ/KQs or a small set, and therefore need runners...or is this pot too big?

2+2 wannabe · #2 11-04-2005, 02:42 AM

why aren't you capping pf?

yuck - I want to call, but you know UTG is 3-betting this a large portion of the time and you're going to have to call a cap back

your outs are tainted (other than runner runner straight/flush) - I have to fold

pryor15 · #3 11-04-2005, 02:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
why aren't you capping pf?

[/ QUOTE ]

i was almost positive it was getting capped anyway and figured a little variety and deception couldn't hurt too much.

shadow29 · #4 11-04-2005, 02:44 AM

12:1, you need 3.5 outs or so (rough estimation, without looking at any charts) to continue.

1.5 outs for BD flush.
3(.5)(2) for overcard outs.

Except I'm not sure that 3 outs is good for the overcards. I'd probably assign them 1.5 outs total. That's 3 outs, you need 14:1 to continue. Thus, you have to make up a total of 1 BB (2 SBs). Which is easy to do.

What makes this hand difficult, however, is that you might have to pay 4 SBs to see the turn. If everyone calls, there are 4+4+4+2+20 SBs in the pot. That's 34:2, which is 17.5:1. Even better. My math might be wrong here, though. I think that we have a call here. Pot is ginormous.

Also, something that turns this hand into a call is that if you miss on the turn, you'll fold. That's important, I forget why, though.

milesdyson · #5 11-04-2005, 02:50 AM

he has to put in 4 bets if it gets capped - it's like 35.5 to 4, so less than 10:1 if it ends up getting capped and all the players call (which would be wishful thinking). then again assuming it gets capped is pessimistic.

the fact that the flop is Q high makes me fold here. give me T high with a single heart and i want to call.

Goodnews · #6 11-04-2005, 02:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why aren't you capping pf?

[/ QUOTE ]

i was almost positive it was getting capped anyway and figured a little variety and deception couldn't hurt too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't decieve those who don't pay attention anyways.

#7 11-04-2005, 07:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Also, something that turns this hand into a call is that if you miss on the turn, you'll fold. That's important, I forget why, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Odds from flop-river are different from flop-turn. In most cases you will have to fold the turn anyway, as you probably need a runner runner here.

You are out of position with a bet and a raiser on the flop behind you. If this happens on turn you will have to cold call 2 BB.

I think it's an OK fold.

#8 11-04-2005, 07:37 AM

that pot is huge, i really cant see any way to fold there.

#9 11-04-2005, 07:46 AM

I would have at least waited until the turn. Id give you 3 outs for your two overcards and 1 out for the flush draw so you need 10-9:1 to call. Damn, you could have only 2 outs and could call this!!!!

digitalis · #10 11-04-2005, 07:49 AM

If you knew you were only going to pay 2 SBs to see the turn you could call. Since it is very likely you are going to pay more than 2 SBs you can't call. Your hand is too weak to risk it. NH