mid pair HU vs BB aggressor - Page 2

detruncate · #11 10-15-2005, 11:08 PM

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: grasshopper is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, grasshopper raises, 3 folds, 1 folds, BB 3-bets, grasshopper calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, grasshopper calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, grasshopper checks.

I might have missed an opportunity to push off a better PP since it's quite likely that I'm on overs when I call the flop. I don't think he checks with an Ace unless he also has a flush draw. He may or may not bet a made flush -- a decent Ace doesn't love giving a free card and I'd have to be a little concerned about being bluff/semibluff c/r'ed by a worse hand so I'm going to have to think about it before I fold. Checking a bigger PP with a flush card seems reasonable.

I have no idea if Villain is thinking any of these things, of course. What I do know is that I can fold to a c/r and might sometimes steal the pot with a bet. On the other hand, I'm not that worried about giving a free card since there aren't many draws that don't include a made hand I'm behind.

1/4 of the time that Villain's on an overpair he also has a flush draw. He can't like check/calling without, but he might just be resigned to showing down and/or betting a 4th flush card on the river. He also might have hit TP or MP on the flop and think that he has some 2-pair outs if behind.

River: (4.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, grasshopper ???

The river doesn't change anything for me. He might find it a bit scary, or he might decide that I'm now less likely to have one -- could be reasonable to assume that I'd raise a safe turn with TP rather than popping the flop. But I doubt that it has much effect on his thinking unless he sees a pair and thinks, "Scary ace and now scary trips. Crap."

The bluffing value of the A is probably gone after the turn check through, or certainly diminished. On the other hand, a flush card will obviously not be a factor any longer, so we don't have to be as efficient in our bluff. On the other other hand Villain no longer has to worry about having to put chips in on two streets.

So... any bettors?

#12 10-15-2005, 11:47 PM

I think the value of betting is gone. The T is in no way scary for villian. If you were going to fire, it should have been on the A.

Check.
I can't see you folding any better hands (getting bluff raised here would suck goats) and any hand calling has you beat.

albedoa · #13 10-15-2005, 11:54 PM

Why would Villain attempt another check-raise after the first one failed?

I bet this. Villain is telling you he doesn't have a confident hand.

#14 10-15-2005, 11:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would Villain attempt another check-raise after the first one failed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he thinks you're likely to bet with more hands than you'll call with.

[ QUOTE ]
I bet

[/ QUOTE ][img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

albedoa · #15 10-16-2005, 12:08 AM

Hero has been yelling, "I'm weak/tight!" The BB saw an opportunity, and it looks like he gave up.

I still don't see any sane person going for a second check-raise attempt here, especially on someone who they read as weak/tight.

Shillx · #16 10-16-2005, 12:12 AM

Flop is a call. Turn is probably a mixed strategy. Sometimes bet with the intention of not putting another bet in UI and sometimes check with the intention of not putting another bet in UI except maybe as a bluff raise.

Edit: River is a check.

detruncate · #17 10-16-2005, 12:36 AM

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: grasshopper is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, grasshopper raises, 3 folds, 1 folds, BB 3-bets, grasshopper calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, grasshopper calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, grasshopper checks.

River: (4.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, grasshopper checks.

Final Pot: 4.25 BB.

Results:

BB has 4d 4c (two pairs, tens and fours.)
grasshopper has 8c 8s (two pairs, tens and eights.)
grasshopper wins 4.25 BB.

In the end I don't hate the way I played it. My alternative would be a turn bet/fold. Shill's river raise it not something I'm ready to consider, but he's always been way cooler than me.

Thanks to all who replied.

albedoa · #18 10-16-2005, 12:51 AM

Not to be results-oriented, but an overplayed PP is exactly what this looked like. I think his river check tells us a lot, and I don't see how a river bet is a bad move.

digitalis · #19 10-16-2005, 01:36 AM

There is no way a worse hand is calling so there is no value in betting. If you put him on a overs or a PP worse than yours then you should not bet.

DavidC · #20 10-16-2005, 01:39 AM

This is third-pair, not middle pair.

The difference is huge, in terms of both outs as well as how likely you are to be ahead.

... and I'm a nit.

Edit: Oh... you meant middle pocket pair... cool