did phil ivey choke?

[CDSNUTSINYAMOUTH]

if you watch the video on cardplayer matusow was saying phil ivey was just playing so bad..."why are you getting in these 2 million dollar pots"....
i don't know what phil was thinking what he had to do..maybe he didn't like getting pushed around in the beginnin....maybe he felt like he had to take a stand a couple times...maybe he was just gonna either shoot for 27th place or first... overall it seems like quite a collapse.
from 2nd place in chips, to 20th place?
In a span of 30 minutes I believe...he still had 2.9 million when the standard raises were going for 200g's..won 2 small pots, and then went broke with JJ vs. KK. I'm probably just as disappointed. He had another good chance slip away, but this time it seems it weren't the cards' fault but his.

[ClaytonN]

Yes.

[Komodo]

Not the first time he ends a tournament like this.

[mackthefork]

Come on be fair it's happened to us all, we've been strolling along on the crest of a wave, and all of a sudden we get but on a redonkulously bongletastic table where everyones reraising and going crazy, only to find out the bastards had aces every hand and they were not so crazy after all.

Mack

[disjunction]

I really doubt that any kind of pressure got to him. None of us are in a position to even critique his play without knowing the cards or being there.

However, speculation is fun... I'll throw out there that he was playing last year's tournament and lost money thinking he could bully everyone. (Maybe he misanalyzed the payout structure because of the super-large field and the different effect it would have on people). He realized this and slowed down, and was still in find shape, and there's just nothing you can do about getting your money in preflop with JJ and running into KK (at those blind levels).

[housenuts]

the JJ vs. KK hand wasn't his problem.

it was the constant action that went like this. i must have seen it at least 3 times in the CP updates.

ivey bets, villain raises, ivey re-raises, villain goes all-in ivey folds.

or

ivey checks, villain bets, ivey raises, villain re-raises, ivey folds.

as matusow said, phil kept playing big pots. he doesn't need to play the big pots but he was attempting to bully people and it wasn't working. i wonder if his opponent were trying to make moves on him, or everytime they just had a big hand. i bet it's the latter.

so basically every time ivey tried to make a move he ran into an opponent with a big hand. that's just as unlucky as going card dead yourself.

either way, he probably should have been more patient and not attempted that. but hindsight is 20/20 and i'm in no position to critique his play.

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
there's just nothing you can do about getting your money in preflop with JJ and running into KK (at those blind levels).

[/ QUOTE ]

2 hours and 10 minutes before he busted the blinds were 25K/50K/5K. So blinds are at most 50K/100K assuming a slow structure (if people know more, then please say so).

To go bust on 2.9 million chips with these blinds holding JJ and getting it in preflop is just not solid poker imo.

See the flop (even quite expensively) then get it in if its sitting good). With K48 on the flop he can easily fold of a million or so committed chips, sit at 1.Xmillion and come back from it.

Maybe Ivey likes to play like this getting massively overagrressive with pairs, i dont watch TV poker so ive never seen him play. But i dont think many would disagree with me here. Thats the line id take with QQ any day of the week, and im taking the same line with JJ twice on sunday.

Phill

[InAPipeDream]

I agree. I think Ivey is still great. I've been WAY up and got moved to another table, only to lose my FH to the nut FH, then next to a 4 of a kind...out. What are you gonna do?

I believe he definitely made some 'emotional' decisions that got the best of him though.

[Rekwob]

blinds were still 25k/50k

having seen this: Hand 59 - Ayhan Alsancak has the button in seat 5, and it looks like Kanter limps, Alsancak raises, Ivey calls, and the action after that is unclear.

Before you know it Kanter and Ivey are both all in, with pocket kings (Kc-Ks) for Kanter, and pocket jacks (Jd-Jc) for Ivey.

looks like kanter limp reraised, ivey thought he was full of [censored], and moved in. regardless, he didnt need to be playing big pots with all these guys, it takes away his skill. matusow has it just right, and just has to hope he doesnt get trapped into playing a big pot and getting sucked out on, otherwise hes going to heads up at least.

[Phill S]

If its still 25/50 thats even worse.

Ok, hyperthetical possibility:

blinds 75K total

limp, pot size bet of 200K, Ivey calls, Limper raises to 1Mill (just over the pot bet), Orig raiser folds,

Ivey has 800K to call, pot is 1.4Million. The aggressive raiser limped in. How solid does your read need to be here to raise him back for the 1.9K on top of his reraise.

For me, ive got to be exceptionally sure about my read to risk this, if im wrong im not on a coinflip, im on 20%. If im right, im probably on a coinflip anyway. If i read him as full of crap my FE is big, prolly reaching the 75% mark (depending on how many chips the other guy has back). If its not, i have no FE.

Perhaps someone more math capable can crunch the math on this, by the time they have ive put in my 800K, 1 mill total and seen a flop.

Ivey needs a really solid read to make this right imo. Who knows how the action actually went, it might have been different enough to look fishy. Who knows about the hands hes observed villain playing for the last couple of hours.

But i dont want to go bust on JJ, im still shocked that Ivey did.

Phill
ps, usual nah nah, you suck, didnt make it to WSOP, ivey has 6 bracelets etc flaming is inserted below.