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#11
07-19-2005, 04:56 AM
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Re: $55 bubble - AK in SB facing 2 pushes
Because against a PP, while AQ is in bad shape, you're certainly not in great shape because you need to flop an ace or a king to win, and there's one ace already out there in some other guy's hand. It's not about finishing second, it's about taking the pot.
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#12
07-19-2005, 05:03 AM
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Re: $55 bubble - AK in SB facing 2 pushes
[ QUOTE ]
I have both of these guys covered. If I lose, I am more than likely getting third. If I fold, I can outplay these guys ITM. [/ QUOTE ] If you fold this then you will be in fine shape to outplay them. Folding this puts you in the money. I know pushing it probably puts you in the money also but if you loseyou will be rather short stacked. If I have the option of letting two folks fight it out while I can wait for my chance to strike with plenty of chips then I wait. Decent stack vs two players is a great situation. Why risk that ? -- tjh
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#14
07-19-2005, 05:08 AM
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Re: $55 bubble - AK in SB facing 2 pushes
[ QUOTE ]
Huh? You are about 45% to win in in a 3 way pot unless one has AA or KK. How are you not in great shape? If you put one or both on such a tight range that its more likely one of the two does have AA or KK that is a different story. [/ QUOTE ] Precisely, You are taking a bad coin flip here. You will most likely lose and there is a chance that things are worse, that KK or AA is out there. Let this one go. -- tjh
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#15
07-19-2005, 05:11 AM
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Re: $55 bubble - AK in SB facing 2 pushes
Since I didn't have logic for my answer I decided to try to put my thinking into terms. ICM kind of falls apart in situations like this.
WARNING: what I am going to say isn't perfectly true since there are going to be many situations where, lets say UTG wins with a PP but you beat the buttons aq and are short stacked (3-4xBB) in 3rd. I would give all the %'s I am going to say (this is just a ballpark) -/+~5%ish room for error. If you think about it though you most likely up against a PP/PP vs AK (best possible event) where you are roughly 36% to win so you will be getting 1st 27.7% of the time, 2nd 8.3% of the time and 3rd 74% of the time.(this is all based purely on the theory that chip stacks HU are linearly related to your % chance to win). If it is AK vs A-x/k-x vs PP you are roughly 33% to win so you will then take 1st 25% of the time, 2nd 8% of the time and 3rd 77% of the time. If you fold you are going to have 2753ish vs a guy with 1985 vs (lets just say for safety's sake the button wins or thru some series of events their stacks are combined) vs a guy with 5262. I think it is beginning to become apparent that you can maximize your winrate by folding. Folding is the proper decision if the amount of 3rds you will be taking by calling outways the amount of 1sts you will be taking (I think this is true, I am too tired to do the math to figure out the average amount you seek to earn by calling but I would be really surprised if the 25% 1sts you take outweigh the 77% 3rds you take). By folding you should not be taking nearly 77% 3rds and you still hold 27% of the chips in play and if you are truly superior you should be able to limit your 3rds, greatly increase your 2nds, and while your 1sts probably won't be at 25-27% I wouldn't be surprised if they approached around that (assuming you are better than your opponents). If this we're 3 handed ITM it is a super easy call.
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#17
07-19-2005, 05:24 AM
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Re: $55 bubble - AK in SB facing 2 pushes *DELETED*
I used the 45% winning chance and calculated on a spread sheet that the EV for folding is $292 and for calling it is $352. (It is a bit less because I assumed that the button will eliminate UTG).
Provided the 45% winning percentage is about right (it should be around that, I believe) the edge you would be giving up if you fold seems to be too much to make it up by outplaying your opponents.
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#18
07-19-2005, 05:28 AM
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Re: $55 bubble - AK in SB facing 2 pushes
[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove the #'s, your #'s are way off. If it is pp/pp/ak you are 36% if it is ak/a-x or k-x/pp then you are 33% to win. [/ QUOTE ] If I use your 33% the EV of both plays are about the same at $292-$296. But I think you have their ranges set too tight. So, even if they are that tight, which I do not believe, you wouldn't giving up anything.
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#20
07-19-2005, 05:31 AM
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Re: $55 bubble - AK in SB facing 2 pushes
[ QUOTE ]
I have both of these guys covered. If I lose, I am more than likely getting third. If I fold, I can outplay these guys ITM. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl UTG (t2230) Button (t2582) Hero (t2903) BB (t2285) Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG pushes. Button pushes. Hero???? [/ QUOTE ] I beleive its a clearcut call.
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