25-50 NL AA hand

[Ulysses]

All,

watcher_uatu was hero in this hand. I have only seen him a few times, but he seems like a pretty decent/reasonable player.

He reraised all-in on the flop and deer called w/ 33, which held up.

[lapoker17]

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I and most others can and will limp re-raise w/ various holdings here in this spot.


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diablo - how true is this really? do you have data on this - probably not, but would be cool to see.

Speaking only about myself here...I know we all talk about mixing up play, but I wonder if we are really being honest when it comes to LRRing. Do you really think villain can think you have any 2 here?

[Ulysses]

lapoker,

This LRR w/ non-premium hands happens a decent amount when an aggressive late position player raises limpers. Usually you just take down the pot right there.

[edge]

I like calling and checking the turn with the intention of going all-in. I don't like limp-reraising in a 6-handed game. I think I've done it successfully once or twice and tried maybe twice as many times.

Push or fold?

This seems like a really tough spot with the stack sizes against this player. His raise on the flop after you have shown a lot of strength makes me suspicious that he has JJJ 222 or 333. I really don't mind folding here or pushing, depending on the dynamics of the game and the how the opponent has been playing that day, your image at the time, etc.

[adanthar]

El D,

With these stacks and bet sizes, the decision whether to continue (either to push or call/CR) has to be made on the flop. Given the type of game this is, unless you never LRR with anything other than big pairs, I think it's virtually impossible to avoid going broke on exactly a J32 board. There are simply way too many possible hands that will pop it there, almost all of which you beat.

However, given that you are going broke here, I think the real issue is with the bet sizes and if the hero wanted to avoid this, he should have been thinking about pot control the entire way through. Potting it twice simply means you pay off the better hand, whereas making it 500-550 PF, then 800 on the flop, would have given hero a lot of breathing room. OTOH, that also means 99 pays off less, so...you know the game much better than I do, where's the profitability break point?

[ansky451]

Am I way off in saying that just calling the flop 'reeks' of AA (or KK QQ etc)? If I'm the villain here and you call the flop, I'd be very unlikely to fire again with a hand worse than AA on the turn. I mean, what else are you peeling one here with?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

building huge pots OOP with deep stacks with a transparent hand (if hero will do this with hands other than AA/KK AND your opponents know this nvm then) in this spot is a crapshoot imo. he either has you crushed or he's trying to bully you with poopoo. in my experience in these games, people are bullying you far less than you'd actually think, but folding just makes me want to cry and people will definitely notice that and take shots at you all day long.

if i had lrr'd, there is a good chance i would just check the flop. it doesn't mean i still can't get value out of my hand when it is best, but at least it means there is less of a possibility of me going broke with it when it is not.

pretty weak limp rr

[Sykes]

The real question is:

If El D pushes, How often is he getting called by TP/QQ/KK/flush draw? Do these times outweigh the time that villian calls when Diablo is in bad shape (22/33/JJ/J2/J3)?


Let's do some stoving:

Against 2 pair or better
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.4366 % 26.44% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 73.5634 % 73.56% 00.00% { JJ, 33-22, J3s-J2s, 32s, J3o-J2o, 32o }

So about a 3 to 1 dog to 2 pair or better.

Against hands like TP(JT-AJ)/QQ/KK/flushdraw(eg. T9s)/straight flush draw (45s):

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 84.2967 % 84.21% 00.08% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 15.7033 % 15.62% 00.08% { KK-QQ, AJs, KJs, QJs, Td9d, 5d4d, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

So, we're a 6 to 1 favorite against this range.


With everything:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.8926 % 60.84% 00.05% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 39.1074 % 39.06% 00.05% { KK-JJ, 33-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, J3s-J2s, Td9d, 5d4d, 32s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo, J3o-J2o, 32o }

We're 60/40.


So, all it boils down to is:

What will he do on the turn if we call here and check to him? What if we donk bet the turn?

How often will he call here with TP or an overpair? If it's often, I suggest push.

Honestly, just guessing here, I think he has a made hand but can't beat the J on board and is hoping that his min-raise takes it down right here.