Odds question...

[obisponator]

My friend replied to your post mickianthony:

you cant say that other people having the cards is the same as them being at the bottom because the probabilities of those are very different...

Help?

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
My friend replied to your post mickianthony:

you cant say that other people having the cards is the same as them being at the bottom because the probabilities of those are very different...

Help?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would love to hear the logic behind this one.

[obisponator]

Friend: but the closer they are to the top, the more likely they get played

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Friend: but the closer they are to the top, the more likely they get played

[/ QUOTE ]

Your friend doesn't have what it takes to win at poker. I'm honestly not saying that to be a dick, but it's true. That statement is so completely irrelevant to the problem.

[obisponator]

Your not saying that to be a dick? All I'm trying to do is explain something to somebody that is confused about a question and you throw that out. That is so completely pompous and rude that you shoudn't be allowed to post on this conference. Your obviously too insecure and STUPID to be answer this question in a reasonable way, so don't attempt to make his question sound stupid when it is you in actuality. By the way, if you ever want to lose money, take me on heads up, any stakes any time tough guy. I'll take your whole bankroll bitch.

[obisponator]

I thought so...

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Your obviously too insecure and STUPID to be answer this question in a reasonable way, so don't attempt to make his question sound stupid when it is you in actuality.

[/ QUOTE ]

I answered your question twice in the thread. What more do you want from me?

[ QUOTE ]

By the way, if you ever want to lose money, take me on heads up, any stakes any time tough guy. I'll take your whole bankroll bitch.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you were as good as you thought you were, you wouldn't be coming on here to ask for help explaining a sickeningly easy concept.

[Matt R.]

Be nice, he's just trying to understand the problem.

But yeah, it is pretty irrelevant... lol.
I'm actually trying to understand why he's thinking this and why it applies to the problem. I actually don't think nickianthony's way of visualising this is the BEST way to look at it, which may be the source of his thinking here. There is obviously a difference if the "outs" are in someone else's hand versus in the deck -- they can be dealt out if they're in the deck. The "depth" those cards are at is unknown though so you can't think of it in those terms

It sounds like your friend is thinking of this as a conditional probability problem -- he's trying to change the probability because certain cards are "dead". The problem is that you know nothing about the condition, so the probability doesn't change.

Please look at my other post, I'm kind of curious what he sees that is unclear about that logic, or why it's wrong. Maybe I can think of a better explanation or analogy.

[obisponator]

Nice way to avoid my challenge. You don't belong here if you can't accept a challenge from somebody that you don't think is as good as you... ESPECIALLY if you say something as irrational and pointless as calling somebody learning the game hopeless... DICK.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice way to avoid my challenge. You don't belong here if you can't accept a challenge from somebody that you don't think is as good as you... ESPECIALLY if you say something as irrational and pointless as calling somebody learning the game hopeless... DICK.

[/ QUOTE ] Kyro answered your question in a polite way. He also explained it as well as it can be explained. You were rude to him in about 5 different posts. And I agree with Kyro--if you and your friend can't understand this simple concept, then you shouldn't play poker.