can you call this?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
clearly, i dont flop the nuts, i suck out, but thats only because your always freaking telling me to call. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

cards happen

[MLG]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
now thats well done

[durron597]

I haven't read the replies yet, but my gut instinct is to fold.

However, the more I think about it, I'm trying to put him on a hand that beats you. AK, AA, and KK are all right out unless you have a read that suggests he might play a huge hand that way. Most people would want to milk trips, so I doubt he has a two. The only hand that I can honestly put him on that beats you is KQ; hands that you beat KJ (split), KT-K9, K8s - K3s, any pocket pair lesls than QQ. So since I've been having trouble building a stack in these tourneys I probably call.

Results?

[DougBrennan]

Che,

Interesting problem, and some well-thought-out replies.

Here's my take, for what it's worth.

Even I would be hesitant to call here, and you know what that takes. I think that KJ has a good chance of being ahead here, but with no folding equity and considering what kind of trouble you're buying for yourself if you're behind, well, I'd pass this call, under the banner of "Waiting for a Better Opportunity."

I'd be most interested in how the live, big-money pro types would respond to this. I have a feeling that (like the suited J8 in the BB thread of a few months ago) their opinion might well range more towards "it's way too weak-tight not to call here."

I thought the problem was interesting because my intial reaction was fold, fold, fold, fold, fold. But the more I thought about ranges of hands that would make the all-in bet, the better KJ looked. I still advocate folding, but not as strongly, and I would certainly listen attentively to well-reasoned counter-advice.

Doug

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is the problem with this analysis as well as some of the others - you're not putting yourself into HIS shoes (ie CO-1).

[/ QUOTE ]

That’s actually an excellent point.

If I’m CO-1, and I see an early limper, then a flop of 22K, then he raises into a field of 4, then what could hero have? If he had a 2x or KK he’d slowplay. AK would raise preflop. Middle pair like 99 might do it, but that’s a bit risky out of position into a big field. I’d put him solidly on KQ-K7s or so, with outside chance at AA or JJ-66 or so.

And with that holding, there is no way he should be able to call a large raise. So putting lots of pressure on should get a fold. This makes me want to find my balls and call even more.

You know, the most interesting thing of all about this post is that my initial reaction was ‘clear fold’, and now after thinking this thru, I’ve moved to ‘fairly clear call, barring a tricky player’ with the logic I see on this.

--Greg

[fnurt]

I like this math much better than the original calculations!

[fnurt]

I can't really think of a hand where it's right for the guy to push. On this kind of flop, you're either way ahead or way behind. About the only reasonable hand I can think of, other than a stone bluff, is if you have a bad K and you're hoping that if the other guy has a better K, you can get him to lay it down.

That's a pretty risky play though!!

My point is, when you see a guy make a bizarre play like this, it's hard to put him on a hand the way you would put a reasonable player on a hand. It's even harder to bring second-level thinking into the equation and start drawing conclusions about what he thinks you have!

I think all you can do is put him on a fairly wide range of hands like Soss did and work from there. You can't really play Sherlock Holmes with an opponent who is capable of this kind of bet.

[Che]

A pot-sized raise for CO-1 would have been 630.

I'm the biggest stack he's up against and a call of a pot-sized raise would leave me with 290. Others would have even less after calling the 630, and some would be all-in.

Results to come...

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

If he had a 2x or KK he’d slowplay. AK would raise preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Greg,

I disagree that x2 would always slowplay.
Many players play flopped trips very fast.
I think Doyle Brunson even recommends it in Super System, especially with a weak kicker.

This guy has 100BB's in his stack and he has tripled up early, I just can't bring myself to discount any x2 hand as he may limp with any two seeing as its 1% of his stack, I don't even discount 72o. (yes people accuse me of seeing monsters under the bed [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

Regards,
Woodguy

[nightlyraver]

2 comments about your reply -

First, I really have no idea what you mean by "K9/KT - 8 ways each - 16 combos" or really any part of your mathematical analysis. Perhaps you could explain it to me?

Second, I don't think you really read my whole post. I was simply giving some possibilities that a typical tight, aggressive player would be holding assuming that the original poster was also a T/A player. However, the real "crux" of my post was that it's impossible to tell without knowing the player and knowing what the other player knows about the original poster. Like I said, his hand is apparent assuming he is a reasonable player and wouldn't play anything worse than KJo from EP (you may feel like anything as bad as K7s or so is reasonable, but I don't). If the poster has been getting pushed off of many hands that MAY have been the best hand, then CO-1 could just bluff at this with any two - then it's a very easy call. However, if CO-1 has built up his large stack by playing some good hands very well, then it's an easy fold - especially if hero has gone to a showdown with a questionable kicker a few times before. If that was the case and I were CO-1 with something like KQs, then I would definately go all-in and hope that hero would call with a K and a worse kicker.