$55 bubble - AK in SB facing 2 pushes

[octaveshift]

I have both of these guys covered.

If I lose, I am more than likely getting third.

If I fold, I can outplay these guys ITM.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

UTG (t2230)
Button (t2582)
Hero (t2903)
BB (t2285)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

UTG pushes. Button pushes. Hero????

[durron597]

Can you give us any hint as to how aggro these guys are being on the bubble?

I think there's a not unreasonable chance of you having the Button dominated.

[octaveshift]

Yeah, sorry I left the reads out.

UTG showed down TWO hands the entire game, 55 and A8o.

Button went into steal mode in L4, raising every hand, but claimed many times in the chat that "he never bluffs" and I stole my way back from t200 chips in L2 by indirectly wailing on his SB. (When he was the SB, the BB was a weak tight Nancy who would give up it up faster than a girl named Crystal on Prom night.)

On the bubble, both were being reasonable. IE- Not 2+2ers.

[11t]

I dunno, I would fold here. I don't have any real mathematical reason but if you think you can outplay them then there is no reason to take this gamble.

[ldavidjm]

I'd call here. Chances are you have one of them dominated and I'd like the chance to cruise into first. And the fact you basically are gonna get ITM regardless of what happens makes it easier, you have a good edge in being able to outplay them but with all those chips its an easy first.

[durron597]

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I'd call here. Chances are you have one of them dominated

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But that's very bad if the other guy has a PP, because it kills your outs.

Tough spot, I'm still not sure.

[Jay36489]

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[ QUOTE ]
I'd call here. Chances are you have one of them dominated

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But that's very bad if the other guy has a PP, because it kills your outs.

Tough spot, I'm still not sure.

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How does it kill your outs? One of them could have AA or KK, which is obviously bad. If its AK vs AQ vsPP you have (almost) dead money in the pot from AQ. If its Ak vs PP over PP, lower PP is dead money. As long as no one has AA or KK you are basically in a coin flip with one of them and one is dominated. If one wins you get third, if the other wins you have a decent shot at third. Win, and you will have a huge lead and at least 2nd. Call.

[lastchance]

Because against a PP, while AQ is in bad shape, you're certainly not in great shape because you need to flop an ace or a king to win, and there's one ace already out there in some other guy's hand. It's not about finishing second, it's about taking the pot.

[octaveshift]

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I dunno, I would fold here. I don't have any real mathematical reason but if you think you can outplay them then there is no reason to take this gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck. My first thought was to fold. Then I looked at stack sizes and thought: "OK you pussay. You are playing for first. No fear. You have them covered. Push it."

I'd run it through SGA, but it doesn't do multiway all-ins.

[11t]

Since I didn't have logic for my answer I decided to try to put my thinking into terms. ICM kind of falls apart in situations like this.

WARNING: what I am going to say isn't perfectly true since there are going to be many situations where, lets say UTG wins with a PP but you beat the buttons aq and are short stacked (3-4xBB) in 3rd. I would give all the %'s I am going to say (this is just a ballpark) -/+~5%ish room for error.

If you think about it though you most likely up against a PP/PP vs AK (best possible event) where you are roughly 36% to win so you will be getting 1st 27.7% of the time, 2nd 8.3% of the time and 3rd 74% of the time.(this is all based purely on the theory that chip stacks HU are linearly related to your % chance to win).

If it is AK vs A-x/k-x vs PP you are roughly 33% to win so you will then take 1st 25% of the time, 2nd 8% of the time and 3rd 77% of the time.

If you fold you are going to have 2753ish vs a guy with 1985 vs (lets just say for safety's sake the button wins or thru some series of events their stacks are combined) vs a guy with 5262. I think it is beginning to become apparent that you can maximize your winrate by folding.

Folding is the proper decision if the amount of 3rds you will be taking by calling outways the amount of 1sts you will be taking (I think this is true, I am too tired to do the math to figure out the average amount you seek to earn by calling but I would be really surprised if the 25% 1sts you take outweigh the 77% 3rds you take). By folding you should not be taking nearly 77% 3rds and you still hold 27% of the chips in play and if you are truly superior you should be able to limit your 3rds, greatly increase your 2nds, and while your 1sts probably won't be at 25-27% I wouldn't be surprised if they approached around that (assuming you are better than your opponents).

If this we're 3 handed ITM it is a super easy call.