live hand--angling?

[Walker]

MP doesn't raise very many hands. He's an unsophisticated irrational nit. I haven't seen him bluff. He would check this flop with a big ace.


I limp A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in EP, a caller or two and MP raises, BB calls, I call.

(8SB)Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to MP who checks

(4BB)Turn: [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, MP calls

(6BB)River: a brick

I doubt he calls with a pp here so it's either check/call or check/fold. I'm leaning towards the latter, but I'd really like a free showdown. Given that this guy is so unsophisticated what tricks (ethical or not) can I use here. How about making like I think I'm last to act and flipping over my cards? That would eliminate a bluff, but technically could my hand be declared dead? Am I overthinking this [censored]?

[mute]

[ QUOTE ]
He would check this flop with a big ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

So since he checked he has a big ace? And why are you worried about being bluffed out of the pot if you haven't seen him bluff?

I think this is much more likely to be KK or QQ wanting to get to showdown cheap, so I really think you need to bet the river.

I think your read appears rather contradictory. You state he is irrational, yet he won't call with a big pp. I doubt his that weak, and given the apparent weakness you've shown throughout the hand I think it's likely he'll call with something like KK or QQ (his most likely holdings IMO). This leads me to bet/fold here, as I believe he'll call with more hands than he'll bet. Assuming villain is capable of bluffing the river or betting with a weaker hand.

However, if we believe villain isn't betting a worse hand with enough frequency relative to the pot odds, then I'd suggest check/folding. Though, you gotta be pretty confident in your read here.

Personally, I think check/calling is the worse option, and the only line I wouldn’t consider.

Overall, I think it's highly read dependant.

[Carmine]

I have no idea who is still in the hand. It seems HU though. I bet unless you know he won't call with KK here. You can fold to a raise.

[newhizzle]

i dont play live all that much, but im almost always betting here, if you seriously dont think hell call or bet anything that you can beat, then i guess a check/fold is in order, but it would take a very very strong read for me to even consider that, against most players im betting, i really couldnt see myself check/fold here, and i think betting is definately better than check/calling, against this player you could easily fold to a raise

i wouldnt worry about trying any kind of angling here, if you dont think he ever bluffs then why try to stop him from bluffing?

[Walker]

Here's what I'm thinking:

Villian calls here with TT,QQ,KK about 33% of the time
Villian bets ATs,AQ,AK 75% of the time and bluffs KK,QQ,TT 5% of the time when I check to him.

Assume he never bluff raises me.

EV(betting)=.33(18/46)(+1) + (28/46)(-1)= -.48
EV(check/call)=.05(18/46)(+1) + .75 (28/46)(-1)= -.437
Is this right?

These are generous numbers. Many of these guys never call with TT-KK here and they check a big Ace behind the majority of the time.

[flopmonster]

bet/fold

[mikeyvegas]

bet the river.

[Walker]

bump

[shant]

Raise preflop. You're way over-thinking the river. Concentrate on playing good poker and not on angle-shooting techniques.