Easy fold of AA here, right?

rikz · #1 07-30-2005, 03:43 AM

Villain is 15% V$PIP, 7.2% PFR, 1.2 Total post flop aggression over 66 hands.

The best I can read this, his check raise is most likely a set of tens given his min-raise/call preflop, a big Ac-Kc/Qc/Jc flush draw, or an overpair like JJ or QQ? I suspect AA or KK would have either limp/reraised preflop or led out for more than a .5 raise, so they are unlikely hole cards for villain.

All this being said, easy fold here, right?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $25NL .1/.25 Blinds (10 handed) converter

UTG ($20.65)
UTG+1 Villain ($27.25)
UTG+2 ($15)
MP1 ($17.60)
MP2 ($23.25)
Hero ($77.55)
CO ($19)
Button ($21.80)
SB ($31.41)
BB ($18.33)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

1 fold, UTG+1 Villain raises to $0.75, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.5, 4 folds, UTG+1 Villain calls $2.75, MP1 folds.

Flop: ($8.10) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $6, Villain calls $23.75 (All-In),

Hero has an easy fold here, right?

Was hero's preflop reraise big enough?

Was hero's flop bet too small at about 3/4 pot?

Thanks.

Iamafish · #2 07-30-2005, 03:50 AM

You fold AA in a 25NL?

You read people in a 25NL? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

spahk · #3 07-30-2005, 04:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 15% V$PIP, 7.2% PFR, 1.2 Total post flop aggression over 66 hands.

The best I can read this, his check raise is most likely a set of tens given his min-raise/call preflop, a big Ac-Kc/Qc/Jc flush draw, or an overpair like JJ or QQ? I suspect AA or KK would have either limp/reraised preflop or led out for more than a .5 raise, so they are unlikely hole cards for villain.

All this being said, easy fold here, right?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $25NL .1/.25 Blinds (10 handed) converter

UTG ($20.65)
UTG+1 Villain ($27.25)
UTG+2 ($15)
MP1 ($17.60)
MP2 ($23.25)
Hero ($77.55)
CO ($19)
Button ($21.80)
SB ($31.41)
BB ($18.33)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

1 fold, UTG+1 Villain raises to $0.75, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.5, 4 folds, UTG+1 Villain calls $2.75, MP1 folds.

Flop: ($8.10) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $6, Villain calls $23.75 (All-In),

Hero has an easy fold here, right?

Was hero's preflop reraise big enough?

Was hero's flop bet too small at about 3/4 pot?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd call. preflop raise was fine. flop bet also fine.

Monty · #4 07-30-2005, 04:50 AM

I think the pot odds are too good for me to find a fold here. Your hand has to be good a little less then 1/3 of the time here for it to be +EV. Given his hand range, I am calling. He could be overplaying his overpair or semi-bluffing two high clubs. I don't consider his aggressive factor of 1.2 because he only has 66 hands. There are times to fold aces, I don't think this is one of them.

The re-raise amount is fine and the bet is fine. Don't forget to post results at some point.

gulebjorn · #5 07-30-2005, 05:01 AM

Getting 2:1 on my call, I don't think I could lay this down either.

You'll be facing JJ - QQ - KK - AT - AKc - AQc - AJc here more than often enough for this to be a clear call.

vulturesrow · #6 07-30-2005, 05:05 AM

There are times to fold AA. This isnt one of them. And I think TT is very unlikely given his flop action. His checkraise seems like an attempt to blow you out of the pot. At any rate, given his range of hands, you cant fold here given that you are behind to exactly one of them.

jskinn04 · #7 07-30-2005, 08:38 AM

You're crushing every likely holding except for pocket tens, and you are getting better than 2:1 odds on the call. Even against a timid player I think you call every time. He might just have been overplaying the first premium starting hand that he had seen.

rikz · #8 07-30-2005, 11:32 AM

Well, I called. At the time, I just didn't think a set of tens was the ONLY hand that would check/push. I felt like JJ, QQ or a flush draw were at least as likely as TT. I thought that there was even a small chance that villain was going overboard with AT for TPTK.

So, with a pot of $37.85, I called $17.75 -> a little over 2:1 pot odds, and I figured that without more of a read my aces would be the best hand on this flop at least 1/3 of the time.

Turn was a blank. River a T.

Villain won a large pot with four tens to Hero's unimproved pocket aces.

Seems like no one else would lay the aces down here given this action.

I posted this to see if I made a bad call. Sounds like it was ok give the limit, action and stack sizes.

Thanks.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ .25 BB (10 handed) converter

UTG ($20.65)
UTG+1 Villain ($27.25)
UTG+2 ($15)
MP1 ($17.60)
MP2 ($23.25)
Hero ($77.55)
CO ($19)
Button ($21.80)
SB ($31.41)
BB ($18.33)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 Villain raises to $0.75, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.5, 4 folds, UTG+1 Villain calls $2.75, MP1 folds.

Flop: ($8.10) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $6, Villain calls $23.75 (All-In), Hero calls $17.75.

Turn: ($55.60) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($55.60) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $55.60

Results:

Villain has Th Ts (four of a kind, tens).
Hero has Ah As (two pair, aces and tens).
Outcome: Villain wins $55.60.

rikz · #9 07-30-2005, 12:13 PM

Thank you for your input on this hand. My thoughts at the time echoed your responses to my question about call or fold. So, I don't feel so bad about calling in this situation. I've made this type of call before at PP 25NL and I'm usually ahead.

But, here's an interesting question -

How big do the stacks and villains check/push need to be for me to fold AA here to a check raise?

With $8.10 in the pot, and my $6 continuation bet, that makes a pot of $14.10.

Let me try the math, in the spirit of fim's recent math postings and the like.

Estimated Probability = 20% for Villian having a Flush draw (using Ac Kc for example).
EV=.627
As Ah 621 62.73 369 37.27 0 0.00 0.627
Ac Kc 369 37.27 621 62.73 0 0.00 0.373

Est. Prob. = 10% for Villian having a TPTK (using Ad Td for example).
EV=.914
As Ah 905 91.41 85 8.59 0 0.00 0.914
Ad Td 85 8.59 905 91.41 0 0.00 0.086

Est. Prob. = 50% for Villain having a Set (using TT for example).
EV=.086
As Ah 85 8.59 905 91.41 0 0.00 0.086
Ts Th 905 91.41 85 8.59 0 0.00 0.914

Est. Prob. = 20% for Villain having an Overpair under AA (using JJ for example).
EV=.872
As Ah 863 87.17 127 12.83 0 0.00 0.872
Jc Jh 127 12.83 863 87.17 0 0.00 0.128

I rounded all EVs off to nearest tenth for simplicity.

.2*.6 + .1*.9 + .5*.1 + .2*.9 =
.12 + .09 + .05 + .18 = .44 approx. total EV

Odds of winning based on .44 EV = 1 : (1-.44)/.44 = 1:1.27 or about 1:1.3

Pot odds to call in order to make a neutral EV would 1.3:1. That means with a pot of $14.10, I can call an all-in from Villain up to 1.3*14.10 = $18.33 over the $6 continuation bet, which would be $24.33 to go.

EDIT: This doesn't seem right? How do I calculate this breakeven point. I'm missing something here, aren't I?

Villain made the all-in $23.75 to go when he check raised all in. So, given these assumptions, I should call. But, he almost had enough money to make this call -EV? I'm messing something up here at the end, because this doesn't seem right. Anybody?