109s and some weak draws

KDawgCometh · #1 08-19-2005, 05:51 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, BB folds, hero?

utg+1 had been overplaying hands, a lot. MP2 was kinda just there. DO I have enough in the way of implied odds to peel on the flop, or is just moving on to the next hand best?

FWIW, I think that if I hit on one of my draws that I can get a fair amount of bets out of utg+1 since he really didn't like being raised by anyone and would fight back a lot

Nick C · #2 08-19-2005, 06:04 PM

I think peeling is all right. The J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] isn't a completely safe card -- well, no card is, on this paired board -- but it'll probably make you best, and you do also have a backdoor flush, plus a backdoor straight, to go with your gutshot.

There's some chance you have pair outs too, but I wouldn't attach a lot of value to those, as they'll just cost you additional money some of those times when you catch a pair.

KDawgCometh · #3 08-19-2005, 06:09 PM

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There's some chance you have pair outs too, but I wouldn't attach a lot of value to those, as they'll just cost you additional money some of those times when you catch a pair.

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yeah, I'm not really attaching much, if any value to the pair outs, in fact, they didn't really cross my mind much in this hand as I felt that I would need runner runner at best to really factor them in. I'm pretty much playing the draws here against this guy. If he was in late position then I'd factor the pair outs a bit more as he'd likely bluff with A high there, but I can't see this guy betting into a field w/o having a queen, trips, or a ace high flush draw

silkyslim · #4 08-19-2005, 06:11 PM

I'd call. I want around 9-1 to call for a gutshot with proper implied odds, you have 8-1 with plus implied odds and a backdorr str8 draw. I dont like any of the pair outs, unless you count runner runner full house! You will most likely fold on the turn.

Nick C · #5 08-19-2005, 06:17 PM

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I can't see this guy betting into a field w/o having a queen, trips, or a ace high flush draw

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I was thinking he might be betting 55 here or a gutshot of his own or he could even just be taking a stab.

If that's not the case, then the call I recommended is looser than I thought it was. I might make it anyway, but trips would really be a bad hand to be up against here. Partly this is because this would leave you up against a redraw even if you caught. But, also, some turn cards like a 7 that seem decent for you could give a boat to someone who flopped trips with his connector.

garion888 · #6 08-19-2005, 07:08 PM

There's a couple of reasons I don't like this draw here.

You're OOP. You'll have problems extracting a lot of money on the turn or river if you make your straight.

In the worst case UTG+1 has the 8 and MP2 has a flush draw. In this case even if you make one of your two clean jacks on the turn they have 18(10 for the boat+8 other diamonds) collective outs against you on the river.