AQo 40-80

[obi---one]

[ QUOTE ]
"you are not cleaning up many outs on that board,"

but if i have the best hand i dont need outs. i just want people out who may drawout on me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am saying that I don't think you have the best hand, unless you have read on button. I don't think button is playing his position with so many people in the pot. I am saying he has you beat over 80% of the time here. Unless you have a read that he doesn't have you beat I think you have to assume he does have you beat because the action in the hand would preclude someone betting there position and trying to get everyone to fold.

[mike l.]

"I am saying he has you beat over 80% of the time here."

even if that were true that doesnt matter enough to change my decision. between the odds i may have the best hand, the odds i may get a better hand to fold (very little chance of this but worth mentioning as the pot gets even bigger), the odds i may clean up outs (including outs to split the pot, and hands that could go runner runner if i make the best hand on the turn), and the information i may get about my other opponents' hands before i get further involved it's clearly correct to continue with the hand on the flop and continuing by checkraising for one extra bet is the best play.

"Unless you have a read that he doesn't have you beat I think you have to assume he does have you beat because the action in the hand would preclude someone betting there position and trying to get everyone to fold."

people play with some amount of random aggression at commerce 40-80. they sometimes do things that make no sense. i dont know this guy well enough to know that he's not making some sort of weird play on the flop by just default betting when checked to. i dont know what's going on in his head. all i do know is the pot is large and you play big pots against freaks different than you do medium and small pots against sane people. and that's why i played this hand the way i did. and i played it excellently and most of you can learn something from it.

[obi---one]

If you played it the way you did, I think you should bet the river. Some stupid arse might fold for one more bet where you are beat.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Didn't realize I had family in California.

TSP

[mike l.]

"If you played it the way you did, I think you should bet the river. Some stupid arse might fold for one more bet where you are beat."

i thought about this a lot last night and ive decided that checking and calling heads up here is definitely better. there is no way im betting and then folding to a raise because the bluff river raise heads up in big pots is too common at commerce, especially against weird random aggressives. so i make more by checking and letting him either bluff, value bet something like 55 or sometimes he will check behind with 55 or a pair or whatever he might have when im beat. but many players wont pass up the chance to put one more last ditch bet in there with something like JT or something.

the only added bonus to betting AQ here is the that it's a value bet sometimes and i get called by all worse aces and sometimes K high. but because i cannot fold to raise because it might be a bluff a bet is no good. the very worst thing that can happen in fact is to bet and then have him raise w/ 44 thinking he's bluffing and then i call and he wins. very bad.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
apparently youve noticed im setting a trap for you. there is no way to justify not seeing this hand to the river given what went down. you will not be able to say "check-fold the flop" and not look like an idiot. so im curious to see how you will get yourself out of this, other than starting sentences with "in general".

and yes i think classifying the people who play 40 at commerce as a special class of super retards would be fair. you did get that right, too bad you were not being serious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I was being serious when I said super-retards. My point was if they are really that bad then it becomes really hard for any of us to analyze the hand. Only you know just what kinds of hands these people play. Posting hands where your opponent's play deviates from the realm of normal play by a large margin are usually not that interesting.
I don't really like the flop checkraise out of position against this lineup. They are too likely to call two cold with any hand that is ahead of yours, including AK. I understand your thinking. The pot is too big to fold, but raising clearly seems better than folding because it might cause a better hand to fold or you might clean up some outs. I don't think either of these two things are likely. I also have no idea what the chances are that someone else was waiting to checkraise. I just think the flop checkraise plan puts you on a path of investing way too many bets for it to be worth it. I can't believe someone called 2 cold on the flop and then folded for one bet on the turn. These truly are super-retards.
I guess I'm saying I would fold the flop, but I would hate it. But I probably would have capped preflop against the crew you are describing, so things may have played out differently.

[mike l.]

"I guess I'm saying I would fold the flop, but I would hate it."

that would be a big error. that's just awful. you are right to hate it. you need to figure out a better play. like raising. or even calling.

as for the cold calling the flop and then folding for one bet on the turn a friend and i were talking about that on the way up to commerce yesterday and we both agreed that it's a: one of the worst plays weve ever seen and b: something we see at least twice every time we play.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
"I guess I'm saying I would fold the flop, but I would hate it."

that would be a big error. that's just awful.

as for the cold calling the flop and then folding for one bet on the turn a friend and i were talking about that on the way up to commerce yesterday and we both agreed that it's a: one of the worst plays weve ever seen and b: something we see at least twice every time we play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm starting to understand more about how you played the hand. On the flop I really don't like any of my options. You chose the one most likely to win you the hand. I really hate being out of position here.
I am going to go ahead and admit I judged this hand too quickly. I'm still not sure I like it, but it is close and worth discussing. I can honestly say that in the heat of battle, I would have had a hard time figuring out my best flop play. Folding and just moving on to the next hand is maybe the overly simple solution of an online multitabler.

[Robb]

You can't fold the flop. You have odds to draw to just the Queen. Calling is better than folding. Raising is better than calling because you might knock out PFR's likely AK/AQ: clearing up your Q chop outs and Adding the A's. The 1st preflop cold-caller passed on the chance to bet the flop. And unless Cutoff is a maniac he's not going to re-raise mike again with only a medium pair.

Implied odds aren't worth a ton because no one will go crazy if the turn/river come Q or A - but the implied odds probably cancel out the times you are drawing dead.

The preflop action turned out perfectly for a field limiting check raise. The pot is big - it doesn't have to work that often to be correct.

[Doubling12]

"they play LOOSER than the LOOSEST players in your regular game."

I've played quite a bit at other So Cal casinos, but went to Commerce for the first time last night. Those people are batsh*t insane FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. Regularly 6 people see the flop for 3 bets each, and a turn checkraise/river lead would win without a showdown. The way you played your hand was exactly right, and no other line is remotely close, but it might not be right for all people in all situations.