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#1
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Re: Ugly Bubble situation
Sometimes you have to grovel for 3rd. I don't see anything wrong with doing so in this situation. Also I think folding the KTs is fine. If the BB is good this is especially so, as I call with a ridiculous range getting over 2-1 (aka I will call you with 98o). If this is the case it's clearly correct to fold your KTd, as it's very important to get 3rd place.
Why isn't anyone on this forum willing to just grovel theyre way into 3rd place sometimes? It's extremely important to make it into the money, and it happens quite often where you should play extremely tight and just hope to get third, even giving up all your folding equity along the way. |
#2
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Re: Ugly Bubble situation
i think the KTs should be a push. there's a lot of value that ICM ignores in avoiding the spot you wound up in, where there are two close short-stacks. it means that both of you will wind up folding in a lot of spots you don't want to. hugely +EV for the other two stacks, so pretty bad for you. it's close though. i'd fold K7s, for example.
i'd call the AT hand, too. if you fold and the BB calls and doubles up, your chances of making the money are pretty low, and your chances of getting 2nd+ are quite low. if the BB calls, he's probably ~40-45% to double. if you call, the BB will only call with a monster. you're way ahead of button's range, who knows that the BB might make a terrible (pot odds-wise) fold. i haven't looked at actual ranges, but i'd guess you're around 60% against button. if you win this hand, you're almost sure to make the money, and could go deeper. if the BB folds, you're in real bad shape, as you're going to have to fold the next hand (KQ, i like the fold) also to avoid letting the SB fold his SB and take a free shot at the money. if you hadn't gotten the walk in the BB, you'd have had a tough choice: make a horrible (pot odds) fold and have a ~2/3 chance at the money (i'm estimating the shorty has a 1/3 chance of beating you and whichever of the two bigger guys comes in), or risk bubbling when the shorty has T60. continuing to fold when short is like a mutually assured destruction with the other shorty. AT is good enough to play here, imo. i would fold quickly if i didn't have the shorty covered for this hand, because then when i called he could come in with junk. your k7s hand is clearly right, imo. |
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