Theory: Approach to Very Short Stack Play

[Shillx]

It is pretty easy to run the numbers for these spots. They will be a bit ambitious due to the fact that SNGPT doesn't account for overcallers, but here is what I'm getting on the button.

5 players, 4 BB and covered 5 fold in all spots = push top 36%

It goes up a little bit as you get shorter, but the calling ranges become so wide that you have to account for getting called in 2 spots (tougher to do). The top 1/3 of all hands is a good estimate for when you have 2 BB in an SNG (in an MTT it would be 33% < x% < 50%). As your position gets worse, you have to tighten up a little bit. As you add more people, you can widen your range somewhat. So you might push the top 40% with 2 bb and 10 people left while you would only push the top 25% on the bubble. With an infinate number of people still in, you would shove very close to 50% of the time.