Flopped Monster - C/R by TAG

[scotty34]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 8.20 BB

I was C/R'ed here by a player I view as a solid TAG. Is this the proper line to extract maximum value out of a guy like this? The A one the river unfortunately killed my action. I was pretty afraid of losing him if I raised the turn. A river raise would probably look pretty suspicious and I think he would pay off with most hands that were not a complete bluff.

Is this good or is there a better way to do this?

I raise the turn. I hate slowing down to keep my customers then find out they had KK or AQ here. If they fold, then so be it. The times they have something you will be richly rewarded. It's hard to extract much from A high anyway.

[wheelz]

yeah raise somewhere! if you're really afraid of losing him on the turn then 3-bet the flop. i think he probably folds to the turn raise a lot less than you suspect though. lots of draws going on there, only one big card...

[scotty34]

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yeah raise somewhere! if you're really afraid of losing him on the turn then 3-bet the flop. i think he probably folds to the turn raise a lot less than you suspect though. lots of draws going on there, only one big card...

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hmmm... well put yourself in BB's position - you call an UTG raise from a solid (hah) player with xx, you checkraise a pretty raggedy flop with 2 clubs and he calls, a brick hits the turn and he raises you

what range of xx could you have that you are going to call this raise with? a flush draw would be obvious, but I can't think of too much else.

would I not need him to call this raise 50% of the time for it to be profitable?

[Spicymoose]

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hmmm... well put yourself in BB's position - you call an UTG raise from a solid (hah) player with xx, you checkraise a pretty raggedy flop with 2 clubs and he calls, a brick hits the turn and he raises you

what range of xx could you have that you are going to call this raise with? a flush draw would be obvious, but I can't think of too much else.


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53s, Q5s or Q3s if he is a moron, QJ, KQ, QT.

A lot of guys, with a lot of hands, won't fire again on the river, so you really need to pop the turn.

[scotty34]

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hmmm... well put yourself in BB's position - you call an UTG raise from a solid (hah) player with xx, you checkraise a pretty raggedy flop with 2 clubs and he calls, a brick hits the turn and he raises you

what range of xx could you have that you are going to call this raise with? a flush draw would be obvious, but I can't think of too much else.


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53s, Q5s or Q3s if he is a moron, QJ, KQ, QT.

A lot of guys, with a lot of hands, won't fire again on the river, so you really need to pop the turn.

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So basically the lone Q out there (which isn't a club, so he doesn't have Qxs) and other trash that at least I would not call in the BB from a solid UTG raise.

I don't know the math, but my first intuition says he needs to call the raise at least 50% of the time for that to be profitable as opposed to calling and hoping he fires again on the river where you raise. I'll do the math tomorrow, unless anyone can easily point out what the number is.

I'm not convinced he calls this over 50% of the time. Please do some more convincing.

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I don't know the math, but my first intuition says he needs to call the raise at least 50% of the time for that to be profitable as opposed to calling and hoping he fires again on the river where you raise.

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This is incorrect. You have to consider the fact that when he has a hand, you can get much more than a raise out of him. If he has an overpair or two pair you may be able to cap the turn and river here. Against flush draws, you have to raise here because you'll get nothing on the river whether they hit or not. Against anything else, you're not giving up much value.

I guess to do this correctly, you have to calculate the probability of each hand you're against and multiple by the expected number of bets you can get out of them. That would be a very error-prone calculation.

[cfjr2]

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I'm not convinced he calls this over 50% of the time. Please do some more convincing.

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It doesn't need to be 50% because he will draw out on you once in a great while (in this hand he draws out if he has AA). So you raise on the turn and get value when he calls because you win, you get value when he doesn't call because you win immediately

To put some numbers to this
50% he folds you lose a bet -1
40% he calls and folds river -0
5% he calls and calls river +1
5% he calls and wins river lose
if the folds are 45%/5% where the 5% is the hands he would have won if he didn't fold, we are ahead by the size of the pot which evens out for the times we lose on the river

so now we are
45% he folds you lose a bet -1
40% he calls and folds river 0
5% he calls and calls river +1
these cancel (roughly)
5% folds when he would have won
5% calls and wins

this makes you even.

now if you flat call the turn - 100% see the river
94% you bet he calls 0 you win (as per OP)
1% you bet he calls 0 you lose (if he held AA)
.5% you bet he raises +1 you win
4.5% you bet he raises +1 you lose

change the numbers how you please here but unless you drastically disagree with my numbers, it is basically -EV to call the turn vs. raise even if villan folds sometimes
(and this could be - it depends on your read of villan, etc)

[Spicymoose]

Gotta raise the turn and make flush draws pay who otherwise would fold a non club river. Furthermore, you say the ace killed your action, but he might not of bet the river anyway.

Given the 2 flush on the flop, I think I might 3-bet this. That way if a flush hits when your full house hits, you can easily go to war.

Waiting till the turn is ok too IMO, but I would do this on a dry board.

[flawless_victory]

if you dont threebet the flop, he cant cap that sh!t.