Your chance is p - how much would you bet ?

punter11235 · #1 05-10-2005, 01:54 AM

Hello,

I know its general question but there was a hand I played yesterday that made me think about it. I was playing NLHE max buying 100$ (blinds 0.5/1) and was doing pretty well having 220$ (at this table). There was a guy who raise preflop to 10$ having any decent ace (but no big pairs, with them he was raising less), and I was dealt KK. Now I knew that if I went all-in he would call, which happened at the table, he turned AK and I lost this 2-1 coin flip (he had me covered).
As I have bankroll enough to play NL100$ but still playing NL200$ with short stack (sth like buy in 90 and cash out around 160) this was painful loss. My decision was influenced (I know, irrationally) about net profit this day which was big enough to cover one 440$ coinflip.
I know about Kelly rule (telling you to bet 2p-1 of your bankroll in such cases) and about other variations of it...

But now... your chance is p, how much would you bet ?
How % of your bankroll would you bet for KK vs AK chance ?

Best wishes

Jazza · #2 05-10-2005, 02:28 AM

i'd prolly go with the (2p-1)*bankroll

JoshuaD · #3 05-10-2005, 01:53 PM

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i'd prolly go with the (2p-1)*bankroll

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That yields negative bet amounts for p < .5.

pzhon · #4 05-10-2005, 04:02 PM

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i'd prolly go with the (2p-1)*bankroll

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That yields negative bet amounts for p < .5.

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Yes, if you are the underdog, you would like to bet on your opponent. If you are a slight underdog, you would like to bet a small amount on your opponent. If you have no chance to win, you would like to bet your whole bankroll on your opponent.

punter11235 · #5 05-10-2005, 08:25 PM

Negative amount tell you : "dont play", and value tell you "how bad is this game", try this for this games with probability of wining one "hand":
-roulette (not that bad)
-blackjack (shuffling after every hand, basic strategy charts, p is aroung 49.3% here or even less, I dont know)
-keno or some other stupid casino games

Results are interesting... Kely formula is widely used (as I heard , I dont know much in this field) in sport betting (horse racing for example), some system used 1/2Kelly or even 1/3Kelly. I dont know anything about its value for real world bankroll management, just read some articles in gambling webpages. Its interesting to see that you should never go broke taking bet using Kelly formula, but it may require to take bets for 0.0001$ when only 0.007$ left...

Best wishes