Why Current Online Win Rates Won't Persist

I've read several discussions about whether or not the fish will eventually go away. Thats hard to predict, but one that is is clear is that online poker would be an extremely attractive job for individuals in developing countries. This is the one unique chance to participate in the USA/European economy with few barriors to entry. Given that they are willing to work in a factory, as doctors, computer programmers..etc for a fraction of the wage of a USA worker, why wouldn't one expect them to play poker at similar pay scale? Assuming that they required a premium of 100% of their normal job, then the tables would tighten by about 2 levels. E.G. 5/10 would start plaing like 15/30 tables of today..etc. Basically there would have to be a shift down until it no longer became advantageous for them to leave their jobs, where as now (although probably not in equilibruim) its basically limited to the point where USA/European workers find it advantageous. The net impact, based on my guesswork is that the average pro would lose about 50% of his earning ability. Online poker hasn't caught on in south america like it has here, but I see no reason why it won't.

Those fish have less $ to give away while the sharks can consume with the best of them. Globalization of poker, will not be a good thing for current pros in my view.

I had posted this on another forum among peers who I highly respect. They didn't seem to be in agreement with me, so I thought I would seek out more opinions here. Fire away!

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Limit Tables Rate/Hour % of population Foreign Job Muliple of Job Mult after 2 Level Tightening Impact on US Pro
1/2 2 3 13 45.0% $2.8 4.81 2.3 -55.6%
2/4 4 3 22 35.0% $4.0 5.39 2.6 -43.5%
3/6 6 3 30 24.0% $5.9 5.15 2.5 -35.7%
4/8 8 3 39 12.0% $8.5 4.54 2.3 -36.7%
5/10 10 3 47 6.0% $11.9 3.95 2.0 -47.2%
10/20 20 2 61 3.0% $16.7 3.66 1.9 -64.7%
15/30 30 2 89 1.0% $23.3 3.82 1.9 -73.9%
30/60 60 2 173 0.5% $32.7 5.30
60/120 120 2 341 0.3% $45.7 7.46
</pre><hr />

* Included $5 per hour for Rakeback/Bonus
** Percent of population is the percent that is mentally capable of beatting the level, not the percent that I think would beat that level.
*** In reality, I think at equilibrium players would not require a premium to their current job pay rate, do to the flexible life which poker allows.
**** This ignors the obvious tightening of the game due to an improving player base.

[crazy canuck]

Currently developing countries have poor internet access and computers are relatively expensive. But this might change in a few years, so you might be right. It is a funny concept tho....even poker professionals will be outsourced!

[lefty rosen]

The few Russians and Chinese that have some wealth already have made some levels more rock gardenish. I remember keeping 80 cents in Paradise poker and playing the 2 max NL games and turning that into about 60 bucks before I got sick of the game and seeing a bunch of mainland Chinese players who played like super rocks. It was probably because 2 dollars US was the equivalent of 25 dollars US to them...... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
The few Russians and Chinese that have some wealth already have made some levels more rock gardenish.

[/ QUOTE ]
Boy, it really sucks that your opponents no longer have exploitable tendencies. How will you ever make money?

[lefty rosen]

Trust me you won't win with worse reads online and ever increasing rake. One thing though the nano limits where you could make more than the average Chinese, Indian worker are profitable enough for them to live on. But an American couldn't do more than earn beer money. So these limits could be their domain...... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[excession]

lol you are kidding - an Chinese or Indian maths graduate ain't going to stick at nano limits - he's going to want to play dumb drunk americans at the $200 tables at midnight (US time) Saturday night...same as the rest of us [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[TheGame1020]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The few Russians and Chinese that have some wealth already have made some levels more rock gardenish.

[/ QUOTE ]
Boy, it really sucks that your opponents no longer have exploitable tendencies. How will you ever make money?

[/ QUOTE ]

NH sir.

[ QUOTE ]
Currently developing countries have poor internet access and computers are relatively expensive. But this might change in a few years, so you might be right. It is a funny concept tho....even poker professionals will be outsourced!

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but the economics are still there to support buying more expensive equipment, you don't even need high end stuff to play poker. Also public internet kiosks/stores are common, these would easily be more profitibable if they were filled with 30 people playing poker 1/2 limit and spitting the winnings, rather than 30 people paying the store 20 cents a minute to surf.

I think it will be exported quickly, unless poker sites segregate the players. I'm hopeful, if the government ever legalizes and regulates the sites, that they require it to be US vs US only.. it even makes sense when one considers that it would limit capital drain from the usa.

So if I undertsand your logic, you're basically saying you only want to play against people in your own wealth bracket, and you don't think poor people should be allowed to play with rich people?

Or is it OK with you if poor Americans play against you, just not poor foreigners?

Do you think this stance is morally defensible, or do you just hope that regulations will be structured to maintain a pool of players that you think you can make money off of (for pragmatic rather than moral reasons)?

I hope this doesn't sound like an attack, I'm just curious about where you're coming from with this. I, for one, enjoy the fact that I can play with people from around the world; its one of the things I love about the internet. But I'm not playing poker professionally.

Also, I don't think its accurate to think that poker players in poor countries will stick to lower limits. I think that, like many people who play now, they will try to play at the levels that are most profitable for them. So, when someone from a poor country gets good enough to dominate at one limit level, I think they will move up. If someone understands poker well enough to win big consistantly at one level, I think they'll understand that its profitable to move up in limits at some point.

[Innocentius]

[ QUOTE ]
So if I undertsand your logic, you're basically saying you only want to play against people in your own wealth bracket, and you don't think poor people should be allowed to play with rich people?


[/ QUOTE ]

I really can't understand where you got this from. It's not even remotely like anything the OP has written. Are you just making things up or did I miss something?