#10
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Re: Flopping the stone nuts
[ QUOTE ]
Except you don't, if nobody has anything then of course they will fold, whether or not you bet the flop or check and bet the river. [/ QUOTE ] Weak flushes, two pairs, and straights will fold to an EP bet on a flopped 3 flush 3 low; it's a scary board even for fish. In my experience people who will fold a flop will call a turn after the flop's been checked around, even if they don't hit. Plus, if you give 6 people a chance to hit a good hand or draw, they're going to hang around. As it is, the flop is very scary and most will fold to a bet. [ QUOTE ] However you have to bet that flop, because it's the only way of getting lots of money in the pot if someone has A2 and a flush. [/ QUOTE ] If someone has A2 and a flush, you lose 1/2 - 2 BB out of them by not betting the flop, assuming all 6 players including the one with the A2 flush check it also. How much EV are you losing here? [censored] all. The chance to check raise multiple callers and trap money in the pot is also a big consideration here. [ QUOTE ] The same applies for pot limit omaha/8, you must bet and hope someone has something. [/ QUOTE ] Pot limit is a different monkey, of course you bet it there, because you have to build a pot to get money in. This isn't the case here. To give you an example of a stone nuts slowplay working, have a look at this (I rarely do this btw, but it's an excellent example of the principle at work): $25 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Wednesday, November 09, 05:11:16 EDT 2005 Dealt to BadbeatPhil [ As 3s 7h Ad ] VJT123 calls [$0.25]. Lridge folds. starbuc48 folds. sewith111 calls [$0.25]. buckatari folds. maaspoort folds. MtManVan folds. sturgeon_nut folds. BadbeatPhil calls [$0.15]. LeeLay checks. ** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, Ac, 3h ] BadbeatPhil checks. LeeLay checks. VJT123 checks. sewith111 checks. ** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ] BadbeatPhil bets [$0.75]. LeeLay folds. VJT123 calls [$0.75]. sewith111 raises [$1.50]. BadbeatPhil calls [$0.75]. VJT123 calls [$0.75]. ** Dealing River ** [ Qs ] BadbeatPhil bets [$5.25]. VJT123 folds. sewith111 raises [$10.50]. BadbeatPhil is all-In. sewith111 is all-In. sewith111 shows [ 5s, Jc, 5d, Jh ] a full house, Fives full of threes. BadbeatPhil shows [ As, 3s, 7h, Ad ] a full house, Aces full of threes. BadbeatPhil wins $0.65 from side pot #1 with a full house, Aces full of threes. BadbeatPhil wins $47.70 from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of threes. There was no qualifying low hand. The very small EV I lost by giving a low draw a free card (they were calling anyway, but I mean the EV if they called and didn't hit), I made up multiple times by someone catching one of four outs on the turn, and paying me off. He felt safe; I hadn't raised preflop, I hadn't bet the flop. If some one has A3 in this spot the money is going in anyway, because they're going to raise later streets for me. If they don't, a free card is precisely what you want to give. With 7 players in the hand such turns are expected, not rare. |
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